South Africa have a clear advantage in terms of overall Tests against Ireland but the spoils have been shared over the past decade. The key for Ireland to get another game in their win column, says former Munster fullback Paul Warwick, is to match the physicality of the Springboks’ pack.
South Africa will be looking to secure first phase ball and use Jean de Villiers and Jan Serfontein – both strong centres – to get over the gainline. They have a dangerous, scrummaging pack and use the driving maul to their advantage. Argentina showed, during The Rugby Championship, that if you match their physicality and play at a high tempo that they are vulnerable.
They were unfortunate not to win one of their two encounters. The All Blacks regularly do well against them because they can match them up front while reverting to that pacy, attacking style. Australia have the tempo but struggle up front.
Without Cian Healy or Sean O’Brien, Ireland have lost two quality forwards. They will need huge games from Peter O’Mahony and Jamie Heaslip.
Heaslip has played more of a loosie – ball carries, running lines – this season as Leinster have needed him there. Joe Schmidt and Simon Easterby will have covered every detail involved to make Ireland efficient at the breakdown. Irish back rows will be eager to rush the South African 10, who will most likely be Handré Pollard. Shutting down his space is key.
The conditions will dictate play and as we all know, the Irish weather could throw up anything on the day. Ireland are fortunate in that South Africa do not have a reliable goal-kicker.
Without Morné Steyn, they will not be able to rely on those three-pointers from scrum and breakdown penalties. Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton have a key part to play if Ireland are to play with that high tempo they will need to worry the Boks.
Murray has shown in the Champions Cup he is capable of upping the ante and Sexton can cause South Africa headaches by playing off the cuff, something that has improved in his game since he moved to France.
Jean de Villiers is a player that can do everything and I really enjoyed playing with him at Munster. He was not as effective during his time at Munster as he has become with South Africa but that is because his style of play did not fit in. He has become a real leader. If Ireland try to swarm him, they can just shift to Serfontein, who can cause a lot of damage.
The set-pieces of scrum and line-out will determine a lot. I believe the Irish line-out will be in good shape with Paul O’Connell in there. The scrum is the area that may worry Ireland. South Africa, along with New Zealand and Argentina, are one of the best scrummagers in the world.
I’m sceptical if Ireland can go a full 80 minutes in a torrid battle up front. From watching South Africa in The Rugby Championship, they did not play a lot of rugby – apart from that exceptional game against the All Blacks – but they have the ability to win the tight games.
Ireland are tipped by many as dark horses for the World Cup and this weekend’s game will be a real test of that opinion. The game will all be decided up front. The Irish forwards will either win the day for them or, if they don’t and South Africa dominate, it could get ugly. If they can match them, at least, it will be interesting to see the duel between Willie le Roux and Rob Kearney, and how the Irish backline copes without O’Driscoll.
Paul Warwick, who played 167 matches for Connacht and Munster over eight seasons in Ireland and made two appearances for the Barbarians, was in conversation with Pat McCarry.
