It’s squeaky bum time.
There are just three weeks to go in the regular season and the play-off contenders are dropping like flies, while the battle for postseason seeding hots up, with one AFC contender getting back towards full health just as another suffers a potentially crippling blow.
1. Now who is the favourite for the AFC’s top seed?
Welcome back New England.
After the Patriots dropped two games in a row and saw both Cincinnati and Denver leapfrog them in the race for homefield advantage through the AFC Championship game, Tom Brady and company are now back in the driving seat after the Broncos and Bengals coughed up home games to division rivals Oakland and Pittsburgh.
The anointing of quarterback Brock Osweiler has been put on hold, temporarily at least, as Denver’s offence failed to put the Raiders away when they had the chance as they spluttered their way to four first-half field goals and then failed to score after the break as Oakland came back to win 15-12.
The damage done in Cincy could be far greater, however, as QB Andy Dalton left their 33-20 defeat by the Steelers with a thumb injury that might rule him out for the rest of the Bengals’ season.
Dalton has improved his consistency and is now at the top of the middle tier of NFL quarterbacks, and that’s all he needs to be for a team with incredible receiving weapons, a reliable one-two rushing punch and a sound defence, but without him the team will finish the regular season with former Alabama passer AJ McCarron, whose erratic play makes getting the bye on wild card weekend Dalton desperately needs an outside shot.
Here's what I'm told about Andy Dalton's fractured thumb: likely season ending, best case scenario is playoffs, per multiple team sources.
— bob holtzman (@Bob_Holtzman) December 13, 2015
To make matters worse, in addition to reclaiming the provisional top seed, the Pats are also slowly returning to health. Tight end Rob Gronkowski returned ahead of schedule from a knee injury with 87 yards and a touchdown as the Pats comfortably beat the Houston Texans 27-6 last night, while receiver Danny Amendola returned last week and fellow wideout Julian Edelman is also back at practice.
2. What happens if Russell Wilson can keep this up?
The rest of the NFC is in trouble.
The Seahawks continued their relentless march to the play-offs with another convincing victory over the Baltimore Ravens, but while their defence has been getting back to its best (against admittedly underpowered opposition), the real story in Seattle has been the emergence of a potent passing attack.
Wilson in particular is on an incredible hot streak, throwing five more touchdown passes against the Ravens to take his tally to 16 – without an interception – in the past four games.
.@EliasSports says Russell Wilson is 1st NFL player to have 4 straight games with at least 3 TD passes, zero INTs, 70% completions #Seahawks
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) December 14, 2015
That’s not hyperbole. Russell Wilson has a 145.9 passer rating over his last four games. Nobody’s ever done that. https://t.co/TqT9BPRA2w
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 14, 2015
The emergence of rookie receiver Tyler Lockett, who the rest of the league let fall to the fourth round in last April’s draft, opposite the red-hot Doug Baldwin, finally gives Wilson an inside-outside pairing worthy of a potential championship offence and takes some of the pressure of both the quarterback and the defence, who no longer go into every game knowing that if they give up 20-plus points there’s a good chance they will lose.
.@NFL How about @DougBaldwinJr Last 5 Weeks:
515 YARDs
9 TDs
30 CATCHES
🚶🚶🚶🚶— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 13, 2015
https://twitter.com/NFL_RealUpdates/status/676136070321463296
Oh, and if you ever wondered why people love ‘Hawks head coach Pete Carroll…
— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) December 14, 2015
3. Who’s the boss?
Khalil Mack is the boss.
Mack hit the headlines yesterday with a remarkable five-sack performance in the Raiders win over Denver, showing off a variety of speed and power rushes to get to Brock Osweiler at will.
After the game the second-year player commented that Osweiler held onto the ball much longer than Peyton Manning in the sides’ earlier meeting this season, but Mack was so dominant, and now leads the league with 14 sacks for the year, that he would have caused havoc regardless of who was under centre.
This sack by Khalil Mack… https://t.co/CwCyyze1OI
— Raiders Beat (@RaidersBeat) December 14, 2015
4. Have Jacksonville got the best young receiving tandem in the league?
That depends – does 27 still qualify as young? If so, I’d still probably take Steelers duo Antonio Brown and second-year speedster Martavis Bryant, but Jaguars pair Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are gaining ground.
Both are in just their second seasons, yet have combined for almost 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns so far this season.
Jags second year receivers Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have scored TDs in the same game five times this season. Emerging duo. @NFLonFOX
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) December 14, 2015
The two are a nice match for each other, with Hurns using his speed to get behind defences and Robinson becoming a beastly competitor at the catch point, giving the Jags, who 50 points on the Indianapolis Colts to remain on the fringes of the AFC South race, a young pair that can grow with young quarterback Blake Bortles.
5. Did the play-off field really narrow that much this week?
It sure did.
Absent a dramatic move in the NFC the field is basically set, with only the NFC East winner (more on that below) still a real unknown. Carolina and Arizona looked tied in for the top two seeds and a first-round bye, while Seattle, Green Bay and Minnesota look certain to make the field one way or the other.
With two games to go, it’s unlikely any of the 6-7 teams can get back in the hunt.
NFC
1. Carolina Panthers 13-0
2. Arizona Cardinals 11-2
3. Green Bay Packers 9-4
4. Washington 6-7
5. Seattle Seahawks 8-5
6. Minnesota Vikings 8-5
7. Tampa Bay Bucs 6-7
8. Atlanta Falcons 6-7
9. Philadelphia Eagles 6-7
10. NY Giants 5-7
The AFC is almost as clear cut. We have already discussed the three-way battle for the top seed, but Cincinnati, New England and Denver are all assured of playing into January.
The South remains a three-way battle between the Colts, Texans and Jaguars, but the real intrigue is in the fight for the wild cards.
The Steelers, Jets and Chiefs are all at 8-5 and one of the three will miss out. New York and Kansas City hold the tiebreakers for now, but the Jets arguably have the tougher run-in with games against the Patriots and Buffalo.
AFC
1. New England Patriots 11-2
2. Cincinnati Bengals 10-3
3. Denver Broncos 10-3
4. Indianapolis Colts 6-7
5. Kansas City Chiefs 8-5
6. NY Jets 8-5
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5
Also: Houston Texans 6-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-8
Monday Night Football – New York Giants (5-7) @ Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Two 5-7 teams but only one with anything to play for.
After wins for Philadelphia and Washington yesterday meant that the awful NFC East will at least have one team get to seven wins, the Giants can join them in a tie for first place with a win over Miami.
Having dumped their head coach earlier in the season, the Dolphins also got rid of offensive co-ordinator Bill Lazor last week, and then laboured to a win over the struggling Ravens. As long as the Giants O-line can keep Eli Manning on his feet long enough to find a receiver or two (Hi Odell Beckham!), New York should win this one.
And finally…
Lael Collins is 6ft 4in, and weighs almost 22 stone, but the Dallas Cowboys guard might be one of the best athletes in the league.
The rookie guard went undrafted after some legal complications created uncertainty around him last spring, and the first-round talent signed with the Cowboys, where he has spent the season pancaking unsuspecting defenders.
Yesterday, the big number 71 got out in front of running back Darren McFadden and flattened anything that stood in his way.
The Darren McFadden 45-yard run is nice and all but…
La'el Collins is a full-blown wrecking ball 😧. #DALvsGB https://t.co/gqpLQ2BVwR
— NFL (@NFL) December 13, 2015
