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Rugby

27th Apr 2016

Here’s what your province needs from the PRO12 run-in

In with a shout

Patrick McCarry

All four provinces are still in with a semi-final shout with Leinster and Connacht close to securing home ties in the last four.

Ulster (60 points) have slim hopes of getting that top two finish that would secure a home semi-final while Munster must be content with Champions Cup qualification by any means.

The obvious threats to the Irish provinces’ chances are Glasgow Warriors (66 points) and Scarlets (58). Let’s start with the league’s leading two before we get fanciful with Ulster and Munster.

Leinster (68 points) – Ulster (a), Treviso (h)

They have a knack for getting some of their most recognisable faces on the pitch at the business end of the season. So it has proved again as Rob Kearney and Luke Fitzgerald both returned for the Edinburgh game. Sean O’Brien could be back to face Ulster.

The hapless Scots were no bother for Leinster and a bonus point win was just perfect for Leo Cullen’s side. Leinster should also wallop Treviso in their final game of the season and pick up a bonus point in the process.

Leinster’s Garry Ringrose 16/1/2016

Of course, they can’t think like that going into the final match but we will do it for them. That leaves an away match against Ulster.

Les Kiss’ side edged a home win over Connacht and dismissed Zebre in their last two times out, but cannot claim to be anywhere near peak form.

Given the fact that Leinster have a two-point cushion on Glasgow, and Treviso in their last league game, a win by any means possible would virtually secure top spot.

Predicted points finish: 74 (1st)

Connacht (68) – Treviso (a), Glasgow (h)

Matt Healy celebrates scoring a try with teammates 20/2/2016

A bonus point win over Munster – we saw the victory coming but not the four tries or the comfortable nature.

Pat Lam’s high flyers should have too much for Treviso, at Stadio Mongio, so that leaves league champions Glasgow Warriors with a visit to Galway. This will prove a particularly stern test as Warriors will have most of their Test contingent in-situ.

Connacht have consistently exceeded expectations this season so they could well beat Gregor Townsend’s side to top the standings.

Predicted points finish: 73 (3rd)

Ulster (60) – Leinster (h), Ospreys (a)

Claiming a home semi-final is not beyond Ulster… yet.

Wins for Glasgow and Connacht, last time out, did not help but at least Ulster got their bonus point win. Leinster are up next, at Ye Olde Ravenhill, and there is every chance of taking their scalp.

Ulster Rugby v Toulouse - European Rugby Champions Cup

Their final home game is Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium. Awful as their season has been, Ospreys may still in with a Champions Cup hope so it won’t be easy. The good news for Ulster is that the likes of Iain Henderson and Chris Henry should be available for the final fixtures.

Predicted points finish: 68 (4th)

Munster (53) – Edinburgh (h), Scarlets (h)

Rosary beads and lady luck – these are some of the last remnants of hope for Munster.

Munster team huddle 14/11/2015

Munster chief executive Garrett Fitzgerald believes non qualification for the Champions Cup could cost anything between €500,000 and €1 million. We feel they will sneak in.

They are level on points with Edinburgh but, fortunately, Munster have them next at Irish Independent [Musgrave] Park, Cork. A bonus point victory – not beyond the realms of possibility – would all but secure a top six finish.

Munster then face Scarlets in Thomond Park. They would need another resounding result to have a chance of finishing as high as fourth or, more likely, fifth.

Predicted points finish: 63 (6th)

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