And now, the end is near…
The final curtain awaits at Wellington’s imposing Cake Tin and the weather is forecast to be rough-house. Warren Gatland has made three changes to the Lions’ starting XV ahead of the Second Test and brought in impact players to spring from the bench.
Most pundits, fans and former players agree that the Lions’ squad has a much more attacking feel to it. Those same voices are still predicting another New Zealand victory and you will find few who will argue against the Test Series ending another other than 3-0 to the hosts.
The bookmakers share that sentiment and, heading into this weekend’s game. The first try-scorer market certainly reflects it.
Only one Lions player features in the top five of Ladbrokes’ list of first try-scorers. Waiseke Naholo and Rieko Ioane, who bagged a brace last weekend, are listed at 7/1 while Beauden Barrett and Israel Dagg follow, at 10/1 and 11/1 respectively. Elliot Daly came close to the first try at Eden Park and punters can get him at 16/1.
But what of the man that finished off what All Blacks coach Steve Hansen referred to as a score that would go down ‘in the annals of Test history as one of the best ever scored’?
As if folks needed any more encouragement to put their faith in O’Brien, Ireland legend Ronan O’Gara told The Hard Yards rugby podcast that he expects the flanker to go out and ‘rise to the challenge’ again.
It is a clear sign of the impact O’Brien has had on the tour that he has retained the No.7 jersey while it was left to tour captain Sam Warburton and First Test captain Peter O’Mahony to scrap it out for the blindside role. When the man is good, he’s generally very good.
It’s no wonder some Kiwis have likened him to former All Blacks captain Richie McCaw.
The other tempting bet is one that had former Munster and Ireland centre James Downey scribbling on his note-pad during the podcast.
A New Zealand winning margin of between one and five points is available at 12/1. Weather conditions are forecast as inclement and the home side will be more than happy to kick penalties and get over the line to clinch the series. The final scoreline should be closer than last week’s one of 30-15 so the narrow winning margin punt is tempting.
As for the outright winner, the Lions can be backed at 5/1 while New Zealand are available at 6/1 ON.
For Warren Gatland’s men to stand any chance they need several things to happen:
- Score three or more tries
- Be 90% or better with kicks at goal
- Win most collisions
- Get the attacking maul rolling again
- Parity or better at the scrum
- Go for harder and longer than Eden Park
- Be brave
- Get lucky
Even with all that, it may not be enough.
That is the size of the challenge facing the Lions but nobody ever said it would be easy. O’Brien will rise to the occasion but he needs back-up, and lots of it.
