Connacht can see the finish line because they are practically standing on it.
The westerner’s 7-6 win over Leinster, last weekend, all but confirmed a return to the top table of European rugby.
We have crunched the numbers and, at one stage, were about to pop some dusty bottle of champagne that was hanging around from our launch party.
Alas, Connacht are not there yet.
Here is how close they are and the unlikely scenario that can prevent them from dicing with the likes of Toulon, Saracens and the other Irish provinces next season.
Hangers on
Currently in first place, on 63 points, the only two teams that can take the final Champions Cup spot from Connacht are Cardiff Blues [44 points] and Edinburgh [47].
The top seven sides qualify for the Champions Cup but there must be a team represented from each country [Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales]. That means bottom-feeders Treviso or Zebre will definitely take that seventh and final spot.
So the race is for sixth place and Connacht are 16 and 19 respective points clear of Edinburgh and Cardiff. There are a maximum of 20 points to play for and 20 points for Connacht not to win.
Pat Lam would not be happy:
Winning streak
Worst case scenario stuff here…
Connacht lose all four remaining fixtures without picking up a single bonus point. Final points total: 63
Cardiff their next three games – Scarlets (H), Dragons (A), Ospreys (H) – with try-scoring bonus points. That leaves them on 59 points going into their final game.
Edinburgh go on a similar winning streak. They thrash Zebre at home and go away to Leinster and Munster and, each time, return home with maximum points. Going into their final match, they are on 62 points.
Last day of the season, when all the games kick off at 3pm, Connacht lose at home to Glasgow without getting either a try-scoring or losing bonus point.
Cardiff beat Edinburgh with a try-scoring bonus. The Scots get four tries and finish within seven points of Cardiff.
If you’re still with us, that leaves Cardiff on 64 and Edinburgh on 64.
That takes points difference out of the equation.
Still a chance for Connacht?
Crazily, yes.
Connacht can make the Champions Cup by winning the Challenge Cup in May [they are currently in the quarter-finals].
Assuming they lose, an extra Guinness PRO12 spot can become available if Newport Gwent Dragons – the other PRO12 horse in the race – win the final.
However, if Cardiff and Edinburgh somehow get that clatter of wins, Dragons will not qualify through the league route and would take up the final slot.
Phew.
In conclusion…
Connacht are in next season’s Champions Cup. This weekend’s results will only confirm it.
