All the permutations you need to know if Ireland are to hang onto their crown.
Let’s get the pessimism out of the way first. No team in the history of the Six Nations has ever won the championship with seven points.
As it stands, seven points are the maximum Ireland can finish with. Even that will be a tough ask.
This rapidly gets the first of our seven possible permutations out of the way.
WEEK 3
1. Ireland lose on Saturday
The three-in-a-row dream turns to dust.
Now, let’s get our hopes up. We are going to be predicting outlines, and results, here based on current form, historical results and gut instinct.
2. Ireland draw with England
This would leave Ireland on 2 points and England on 5. Ireland could only finish on a maximum of 6 points. With Wales-France, England-Wales and France-England all on the horizon it gets complicated.
The only chance Ireland would have would be for France to draw with Wales then lose to Scotland and draw with England [6 points]. England would have to lose to Wales in that scenario [6 points] and for Wales to then lose to Italy [6 points]. Phew!
3. Ireland beat England
On Friday, Wales beat France at the Millennium Stadium. That leaves Wales on 5 points and France on 4. Scotland are away to Italy but we are backing them to get their first win of the campaign, leaving them on 2. Italy would remain on 0.
Ireland then go out to Twickenham and battle to a hard-earned win that makes them believe there is a chance of achieving the improbable. They move to 3 points.
WEEK 4
4. Ireland lose to Italy
No Irish team has ever lost at home to Italy, although the 2007 team came damn close before they flew out to a disastrous World Cup. Needless to say, Ireland’s title chances would be sunk.
5. Ireland beat Italy
A likely scenario. Ireland would look to do the hard work in the opening 40-50 minutes and a comfortable scoreboard lead. With a result all but assured, the focus would then turn to scoring tries and embellishing the points difference. Ireland now on 5 points.
In the weekend’s other games, England and Wales would next face off. Both sides have split the last four Tests at Twickenham, with Wales the most recent winners [at the World Cup].
Warren Gatland’s side would have momentum, coming off the France win, but England are not likely to lose two on the trot at Twickers. An England win that will leave them on 6 points and keep Wales on 5.
France are away to Scotland and we are backing Vern Cotter’s men to shade it. That leaves Scotland on 4 points and France stuck on 5.
WEEK 5
So now we’re getting excited. Ireland go into the final matchday, with all games taking place over a six-hour window, still with an outside chance.
Wales have Italy at home and will thump them, leaving them on 7 points.
6. Ireland lose to Scotland
Damn you Vern Cotter!
7. Ireland hand the Scots a beating
Ireland are up next against a Scottish team on the up. Buoyed on by an imbibed Irish crowd, the game opens up and tries are plentiful. Ireland win and, somehow, surpass the Welsh points difference. They finish on 7 points and now must watch England versus France.
For the second season in a row, the curtain comes down with Les Bleus and England going for broke and scoring tries from all over the park. France get the win [7 points] but the scoreline is too close for either side to claim the championship. This means…
… IRELAND WIN THE 2016 SIX NATIONS!!
It’s possible but, realistically, it will take an implosion from Wales, England AND France for it to happen.
