Relegation offers Ireland a way out of football purgatory.
In 2018, Ireland finished bottom of their group in the inaugural Uefa Nations League tournament.
Martin O’Neill’s team played Wales and Denmark twice and ended the group in third place, with two points from four games. The dismal campaign ultimately led to O’Neill and his assistant Roy Keane leaving their posts.
Ireland, however, did not suffer relegation into League C. Uefa changed the format of the competition from three-team groups to four-team groups, so Ireland remained in the more competitive League B for the 2020 competition.
This proved to be an unhelpful development for Stephen Kenny, who, by then, had succeeded Mick McCarthy as manager.
The Boys in Green would, once again, finish in third place in the group – behind Wales and Finland – and ahead of Bulgaria, who were relegated, by a single point.
Kenny’s team drew three games and lost three. It was a poor performance, but, once again, they were not relegated and remained in League B. Yet, demotion into League C would have been the best thing that could have happened to Kenny’s side at this point.
So, for the 2022 tournament, instead of facing League C sides such as Belarus, Lithuania or Kazakhstan, Ireland were drawn into a group alongside Ukraine, Scotland and Armenia.
Kenny’s side performed better this time, winning two – including a 3-0 win over Scotland – and drawing one of their six matches. However, it was not good enough as they finished the group in third place with seven points.
Scotland topped the group and Ukraine came second, which led to them earning a play-off place for Euro 2024. Had Ireland finished ahead of Ukraine in second place, it is possible that Kenny would still be the manager after potentially guiding the team through the playoffs.
Either way, without the guarantee of that play-off place, the qualification group containing France, the Netherlands and Greece proved too difficult for Ireland. Kenny was dismissed last November.
This brings us to September 2024, and the fourth running of the Nations League. Ireland have lost their opening two games of the tournament, to England and Greece respectively, and look to be in a fight to avoid relegation with Finland.
New head coach Heimir Hallgrimsson has said that the team lack confidence and that losing has become a habit. He is right, and the only way to break that habit may be to suffer the pain of relegation.
Relegation to League C would potentially end years of stagnation, release the national team from purgatory, and offer the chance to win some games. It also may be Ireland’s best chance of reaching Euro 2028, which the country will co-host.
The Nations League has yet to capture the imagination of the Irish sporting public, and may never do so, but it is arguably the most important competition Ireland has played in since Euro 2016.
This is for one simple reason – if a team does well in the tournament, and comes in first or second in their group, they receive a play-off place for a major tournament against sides of similar ranking.
Having a guaranteed play-off place in your back pocket means that a team has a free hit at qualification – which is a great position for a side of Ireland’s stature.
Without this play-off place, Ireland’s hopes of reaching a major tournament drastically decrease.
If the team lands in a difficult group, such as the Euro 2024 qualification group with France, Netherlands and Greece, then Ireland are in trouble. This is a road to nowhere, as we have discovered.
Ireland’s record in the Nations League is also horrendous. The Boys in Green have lost 10 games, drew six and only won twice – against Scotland and Armenia.
The national team’s wider competitive record is equally terrible.
Since 2018, Ireland have only won nine competitive matches – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Gibraltar, Luxembourg, and Scotland – and four of those wins were over Gibraltar.
There are only a handful of ways to break this cycle. The first one is to hire a world-class manager who can extract the maximum from a team low on confidence.
This isn’t going to happen any time soon given the financial constraints the FAI are working under.
The next way to start winning games and reaching tournaments is to, quite simply, get better players. This isn’t club football though, and Ireland can’t just dip into the transfer market.
The other way to break the current cycle of misery is to reduce the level of the opponent.
For the 2026 Nations League, Ireland could be facing teams such as Northern Ireland, Cyprus, or Latvia. This would be a lot more favourable than facing League B teams such as England, Turkey or Austria.
Georgia, familiar opponents for Ireland, won five of their six games in Group C in the last running of the tournament.
This secured them a play-off, which they won against Greece, and the momentum carried them through to Euro 2024, where they beat Portugal. The Nations League format may be convoluted, but it works. Ireland just needs to make it work for them.
Crucially, relegation could also save Ireland from reaching rock bottom. While the past few years have been torturous, and the current team are enduring the worst spell in recent memory, it could always get worse.
If Ireland were to miss out on Euro 2028, a home tournament, that would surely signal the lowest point for the national team.
Uefa have yet to confirm the qualification process, but given five countries – Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – will host the tournament, Ireland are unlikely to gain automatic passage to Euro 2028.
So, Ireland may suffer more pain in the short term if they lose to Finland, England and Greece over the coming months. The team will be relegated if they finish bottom of the group, and will go into a relegation play-off if they finish third.
If they are relegated, it will negatively affect their qualification chances for the 2026 World Cup.
Yet, being realistic, we’re unlikely to reach that tournament anyway given there are only 16 places reserved for Uefa nations, and Ireland are currently ranked 33rd among the European teams.
So, while relegation would be painful in the short term, it could prove to be very beneficial in the long run.
League B has proven to be a graveyard for Ireland, but League C presents a chance to start playing games against teams of similar quality.
Who knows, Ireland may even win a few matches.
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