It’s play-off time in the NFL and here’s the SportsJOE preview and best bets for this today’s wild card games.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (9.35pm)
(CAR -6.5, Over/Under 37.5)
The opening match-up of the weekend features a pair of teams trending in very different directions heading into the postseason. Arizona had the NFL’s best record through 11 games but lost two quarterbacks and four of their last six games. The Cards were struggling to put up points before third-stringer Ryan Lindley was thrust into the role and he starts against a Carolina side which compiled a losing record yet still emerged as the least terrible team in the NFC South. In Arizona’s favour is a defence which has been the team’s real strength, with an experienced defensive line led by Calais Campbell and a dynamic young secondary keeping opposition big plays to a minimum.
Things are looking up for the Panthers, though, who won their final four games by rediscovering the template of tight defence and strong running that saw them win 12 games last year. The Cardinals defence is far superior to those Carolina has faced during its winning streak, however, and given the limitations of the Arizona offence the outcome will likely be decided by the play of quarterback Cam Newton, who has played better of late despite dealing with some injuries and a recent car crash, but remains prone to bouts of inconsistency.
Verdict: The form guide and the oddsmakers suggest the Panthers will win a low-scoring encounter, but with a total as low as 37.5 it only takes one defensive touchdown (a real possibility here) to spoil your evening, so SportsJOE’s cash will be staying in its pocket for this one.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (1.15am)
(PIT -3, Over/Under 44.5)
After years of ferocious defensive battles this AFC North rivalry has shifted towards to a more offensively minded affair in recent times, albeit no less heated. The home team has won both games this season by exactly 20 points, but the cauldron of the play-offs should ensure a closer contest here.
Pittsburgh ended the season with the league’s No.2 offence and was best through the air according to Football Outsiders, which matches them up well against Baltimore’s poor secondary. In-form running back Le’Veon Bell has been ruled out with a knee injury, robbing the Steelers of a major weapon. But QB Ben Roethlisberger has never been shy when it comes to having the outcome rest on his arm, and having thrown six touchdown passes against the Ravens a couple of months back he will be confident of hooking up with All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown again.
The Ravens have been unconvincing over the season’s closing weeks, but results went their way on the final week of the season and they snuck into the play-offs. The return of Haloti Ngata to the defensive line and the absence of Bell should limit Pittsburgh’s ability to run the ball, but Baltimore will need edge rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil to get to Big Ben in order to cover up the deficiencies behind them. On offence, look for 2013 Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco to test the Steelers through the air, looking for his duo of Smiths, cagey veteran Steve and speedster Torrey.
Verdict: The Ravens are looking for a first ever postseason win at Heinz Field at the fourth attempt but this Steelers offence should be too potent for them. The news that Bell is out has moved the line from -3.5 to just -3 in favour of Pittsburgh, and we’re confident enough in Roethlisberger to take that number.
All odds via Ladbrokes
