14.
If you’re wondering why it feels like there are five or six good teams and then a giant pile of meh in the NFL this season, it’s because that’s exactly what we’ve got.
There are 14 teams at either 5-5 or 4-6 at the ten-game mark, all of whom can harbour legitimate postseason hopes, with an almighty scrap in prospect for the remaining play-off berths.
With that in mind, we begin our look at the action from Week 11 with the obvious question:
1. Which teams with a .500 record or worse are best positioned to make the postseason?
Here’s the group we are looking at:
AFC
Buffalo 5-4 (but face 9-0 New England tonight)
Kansas City 5-5
NY Jets 5-5
Indianapolis 5-5
Houston 5-5
Jacksonville 4-6
Oakland 4-6
Miami 4-6
Indy, Houston and Jacksonville are likely battling for one spot that will go to the winner of the AFC South, and while back-up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, again employed in relief of injured starter Andrew Luck, ran his record to 3-0 as a starter against the Atlanta Falcons, the wounded Falcons gave him and the Colts plenty of help.
Houston, meanwhile, continued its recent defensive dominance to win its third game on the trot, with another back-up at the helm, TJ Yates. The Texans have conceded just 29 points in wins over the Titans, Bengals and the Jets, with superstar lineman JJ Watt racking up 5.5 sacks in that spell.
They remain offensively challenged outside of stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but the D should keep them in every game. The Week 15 clash with the Colts could be a division decider.
Elsewhere, Pittsburgh (6-4) look a decent bet for a wild card, leaving the remaining berth between the rest of these middling outfits. Kansas City and Buffalo look the safest bets – the Chiefs have won four in a row on the back of some mean defence of their own to get back to .500, while the Bills are 5-2 with Tyrod Taylor under centre, including a pair of wins since his return from injury.
NFC
Seattle 5-5
NY Giants 5-5
Tampa Bay 5-5
Washington 4-6
Philadelphia 4-6
St Louis 4-6
Chicago 4-6
New Orleans 4-6
Dallas 3-7
The picture is pretty similar in the NFC, with one division up for grabs and the rest fighting over the final wild card spot.
All four teams remain firmly in the hunt in the NFC East, with the 5-5 Giants maintaining their lead despite enjoying the bye week. Philly and Washington lost to NFC South rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina by a combined score of 89-33, so the Giants main opposition should come from the Dallas Cowboys, who finally got staring QB Tony Romo back on the field and abruptly ended a seven-game losing streak against Miami.
The #NFL has three remaining undefeated teams – the #Patriots, #Panthers and #Cowboys with Tony Romo. #TruthAndSarcasm
— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) November 22, 2015
Dallas has the best talent in the division, but having split their two games with New York have they left themselves enough time?
Whoever finishes second in the NFC North between 7-3 Minnesota and Green Bay will grab the first wild card, leaving the rest of the field chasing the 6-4 Falcons for the second spot, and given Atlanta’s recent losing spin, your money should certainly be on one of Seattle, Tampa Bay or Chicago emerging from the pack.
The Bucs stunned Philadelphia yesterday, with top rookie pick Jameis Winston throwing five touchdowns in a one-sided affair. Winston has improved with each game this season, and now sports a pretty decent 15-9 TD-interception ratio for his maiden season, but it seems a lot to ask for him to outpace Seattle and Chicago over the final six weeks.
The Seahawks continued their recent dominance of San Francisco to get to 5-5 and their postseason experience will make them favourites, but the Bears are definite contenders after going toe-to-toe with the Denver Broncos, eventually losing to our third back-up passer of the week, Brock Osweiler, who came in to the line-up for injured QB1 Peyton Manning.
2. Is Chip Kelly on the hotseat in Philadelphia?
Philly’s is a notoriously rabid fanbase and the Eagles’ 4-6 record certainly has plenty questioning Kelly’s position.
The head coach arrived from the college ranks with a huge reputation for innovative offence and a ‘marginal gains’ type nose for detail, right down to the preparation of smoothies individually tailored to each players’ needs.
Now in his third season, Kelly has just a single play-off appearance on his NFL resumé, and has already matched the number of losses from his first two years at the helm, with yesterday’s 45-17 beatdown at the hands of Tampa Bay a new low.
#Bucs RB Doug Martin's 240 yards rushing today are most every against the Eagles. Breaks record of 237 set by JIM BROWN AND EMMITT SMITH
— Roy Cummings (@RCummingsFHCN) November 22, 2015
However, he has steadily consolidated his position in the Eagles’ structure, trading away talented players who didn’t fit his system and being handed control over personnel decisions this summer.
Owner Jeffrey Lurie has tied himself pretty strongly to Kelly, but that won’t stop him cutting bait if his status with the fans continues to plummet and the media circle begins to close in.
Exact first question to Chip Kelly at post-game presser: "After that, can you tell us that the players believe in what you're trying to do?"
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 23, 2015
3. Could anyone else in the NFL make this throw?
Technically, yes. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
But really, no. Nobody else in the NFL has the blend of pocket movement,accuracy and ability to throw on the run that Aaron Rodgers does.
Credit too, of course, to James Jones for the catch, the crucial moment in Green Bay’s 30-13 win over the Vikings that put the Packers back atop the NFC North for now.
Aaron Rodgers throwing darts on the run.
James Jones with that #ToeDragSwag.
Touchdown. #GBvsMIN https://t.co/Qi3IHghojf— NFL (@NFL) November 22, 2015
Speaking of squirrels…
when you're a tiny woodland creature who could easily be fatally trampled by football players but ball is life https://t.co/lI9Y2v7spo
— Rodger Sherman (@rodger) November 22, 2015
4. Can Cincinnati be trusted?
The 8-2 Bengals dropped their second prime-time game in a row last night, following last week’s spluttering defeat by the Texans by losing a 34-31 thriller to the Arizona Cardinals.
Cincy’s play-off aspirations have not really suffered over the past seven days, but the perception that the Bengals freeze when the lights shine brightest will simply not go away until they finally win a play-off game.
Marvin Lewis is the longest-tenured head coach in the NFL outside of Bill Belichick, but since taking over in 2003 he has yet to win a play-off game, suffering six first-round exits, including in each of the last four seasons.
The Bengals failed to score more than 13 points in any of those four defeats, with quarterback Andy Dalton bearing the brunt of the blame for his turnover-laden outings.
Dalton’s history of poor performances in nationally televised games came to the fore after the Bengals scored just six points against Houston last week, but despite coming out on the losing side against a Cardinals unit among the favourites for the NFC, Cincinnati’s offence actually came out of the game with plenty of credit.
Dalton helped rally Cincy from ten points down in the final six minutes, throwing a TD to blossoming tight end Tyler Eifert before marching back down into position for a game-tying field goal.
The defence may have coughed up a last-second game-winner to the Cards, but in that comeback the Bengals at least showed they might finally have the composure to end their postseason drought.
5. Which fans should begin scouting for the No.1 pick?
Six games left and it’s now clear which teams will be picking in the top ten of April’s draft. If the season finished today, the Cleveland Browns would be choosing first, and here is the rest of the top ten as it stands:
- Cleveland Browns 2-8
- San Diego Chargers 2-8
- Tennessee Titans 2-8
- Baltimore Ravens 3-7
- Detroit Lions 3-7
- San Francisco 49ers 3-7
- Dallas Cowboys 3-7
- Miami Dolphins 4-6
- Oakland Raiders 4-6
- Jacksonville Jaguars 4-6
The top pick seems almost certain to come from the first six on the list, with Detroit’s two-game win streak marking them out as likely to improve further in the coming weeks.
The Browns are now fully aboard the Manzielcoaster, with Johnny Football set to see if he can become a long-term NFL QB over the rest of the season, and while San Diego and Tennessee are both low on talent, both Baltimore and San Francisco might be more likely to end up in the top spot by season’s end.
The Ravens lost former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco and starting running back Justin Forsett to season-ending injuries yesterday, adding to the losses of No.1 wide receiver Steve Smith and top pass rusher Terrell Suggs, while the 49ers are now stuck with Blaine Gabbert under centre after placing Colin Kaepernick on injured reserve and generally continue to be a mess of an organisation.
Monday Night Football – Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)
The Pats will probably end up letting their guard down at some stage and will lose their unbeaten record, it’s just hard to see coach Bill Belichick letting that happen against Rex Ryan.
The mouthy Bills head coach was briefly a thorn in the Patriots’ side when in charge of the Jets, and continues to talk a big game whenever he pits his defensive wits and Belichick and Tom Brady, but the reality is that Ryan is 1-8 over his last games against New England, including a 40-32 win in upstate New York earlier this year.
And finally…
There are excuses, and then there are EXCUSES.
Washington defensive lineman Jason Hatcher came out with an absolute pearl after they were on the receiving end of a 44-16 hiding from unbeaten Carolina.
Hatcher insisted referees around the league are holding a vendetta against his team over their continued use of the name Redskins.
MUST WATCH- #Redskins Jason Hatcher on his frustration with refs & how it feels personal because of the team's name pic.twitter.com/lswvyP5FW4
— Carol Maloney (@carolmaloney4) November 22, 2015
On the other hand, Jason, stuff like this might have more to do with the result than your offensive nickname.
https://twitter.com/Deadspin/status/668490846061404160/photo/1
Never realised Santi Cazorla was moonlighting as an NFL kicker…
Week 11 results:
Jacksonville 19-13 Tennessee
Carolina 44-16 Washington
Tampa Bay 45-17 Philadelphia
Detroit 18-13 Oakland
Indianapolis 24-21 Atlanta
Houston 24-17 NY Jets
Denver 17-15 Chicago
Baltimore 16-13 St Louis
Dallas 24-14 Miami
Seattle 29-13 San Francisco
Kansas City 33-3 San Diego
Green Bay 30-13 Minnesota
Arizona 34-31 Cincinnati
