What each province needs to do to clinch a Champions Cup spot

We are nearing the final countdown.

Each of the four Irish provinces face crucial Guinness PRO12 matches this weekend, with three of them seeking a top four finish and Connacht still on the hunt for a Champions Cup spot.

All four were out in the sun, training, today.

MUNSTER

LEINSTER

CONNACHT

ULSTER

Following a change in the Champions Cup qualification criteria, last season, Connacht missed out on Europe’s elite competition. This May could see them make a return.

Ireland’s other three provinces have long expected to contest the European Cup each year. Munster and Ulster both look assured of places but Leinster – following their 25-22 loss against Dragons – are up against it.

Here is how the Champions Cup and top four races are shaping up.

Ulster (63pts – Qualified)

Third in the league on 63 points, two behind Glasgow Warriors. Munster have the same points but points difference [+180 to +158] is superior to that of Neil Doak’s side, who beat Connacht 27-20 on Saturday.

Fixtures: Leinster (H), Munster (H), Glasgow (A).

Their win over Connacht secured a Champions Cup spot. Ulster have set their sights on a top two finish, however. That would ensure a home semi-final, at Kingspan Stadium. The final is in the same venue, in Belfast.

If Ulster get that far, they could be favourites to claim their first league win in nine years.

Munster (63pts – Qualified)

Only second, behind Glasgow, by two points but finding form, and scoring tries, at the right time. The return of Peter O’Mahony, Simon Zebo and Paul O’Connell, among others, from international duty has bolstered the ranks.

Fixtures: Treviso (H), Ulster (A), Dragons (H).

Thrashed Edinburgh at the weekend to cement their Champions Cup involvement next season. Looking good for top four but would likely need to beat Ulster, away, to earn a Thomond Park semi.

Leinster

Matt O’Connor’s troops find themselves in the unusual position of being outside the top four. Leinster are on 53 points, eight points back from Ospreys. They are nine clear of Connacht and Scarlets – the other European contenders – so one win, of any variety, should get them back to the top table.

Fixtures: Ulster (A), Treviso (H), Edinburgh (A).

Leinster would be confident of beating Treviso and Edinburgh in their final two matches. Their big, big test is Ulster away, five days after their Champions Cup semi against Toulon.

Even three wins from three may not be enough to secure a PRO12 semi.

Connacht

The top seven PRO12 sides qualify for the Champions Cup but one will, automatically, be Italian. Ospreys look to have a top six finish sorted. Connacht, realistically, need to finish ahead of Edinburgh [also on 43 points] and Scarlets [44] to get there.

Fixtures: Glasgow (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H).

The only game you could confidently predict Connacht’s way would be Zebre away. They need to take some points out of their visit to Glasgow, beat the Italians and, even still, may need to give it an almighty whirl against Orspreys at the Sportsgrounds, on May 16.

As for the top four, their 27-20 loss to Ulster has quenched such hoop dreams.

*Updated from an article first posted on April 9

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