Ireland’s expected team to play Wales raises a couple of big concerns

Patrick McCarry

Taking a punt on the young guns.

Joe Schmidt will officially announce his Ireland squad to play Wales just after lunchtime on Thursday. He is expected to make four changes from the XV that started against Italy.

Unfortunately, he may have to make a fifth and it could be a big one.

As positive as Ireland have tried to be about Tadhg Furlong’s hamstring injury [picked up against Italy], he has not been able to hit all the necessary markers to show he will be fully fit by Saturday afternoon. That is understandable, really, as his injury [a suspected Grade One tear] would take at least another week to fully heal.

Schmidt will make the final call on Thursday morning but expect him to go without Furlong while saying if the Wales game was an all-or-nothing affair, the Leinster tighthead could have been risked.

The calculated risk Schmidt looks set to take is going with a tighthead prop and lock combination of Andrew Porter [22] and James Ryan [21], ahead of the more experienced duo of John Ryan and Devin Toner. The Ireland coach is looking for mobile, active forwards and ones that can make impactful carries.

The concern[s] here are the Welsh going after Porter – a converted loose-head – in a big way and trying to sap both Ryan and Iain Henderson, who did not train at all last week due to knocks, by trying to bring about as many scrums as they can muster.

Otherwise, the matchday 23 is unchanged from what we predicted last Friday. That means Niall Scannell takes Sean Cronin’s place on the bench and Kieran Marmion is back-up scrum-half, ahead of John Cooney.

The backline will feature Chris Farrell at outside centre and Bundee Aki in the 12 jersey, with the back three of Keith Earls, Jacob Stockdale and Rob Kearney getting a third spin out. The half backs are Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton.

Rory Best and Cian Healy – edging out Jack McGrath – should pack down beside Porter while Ryan and Henderson will resume a partnership we first saw against Argentina, last November. Peter O’Mahony, Dan Leavy and CJ Stander are the back row.

Joey Carbery got 25 minutes at outhalf against Italy but may not see as much game-time, injuries notwithstanding, if the game is a tight one. Fergus McFadden is No.23, beating Jordan Larmour and Andrew Conway to it.

Wales named their matchday 23 on Tuesday and included Lions Dan Biggar, Leigh Halfpenny and Liam Williams.

IRELAND (Predicted XV for Wales)

Rob Kearney

Keith Earls
Chris Farrell
Bundee Aki
Jacob Stockdale

Johnny Sexton
Conor Murray

Cian Healy
Rory Best (captain)
Tadhg Furlong/Andrew Porter

Iain Henderson
James Ryan

Peter O’Mahony
Dan Leavy
CJ Stander