Boffins love a number crunch.
We are a week away from the World Cup and it is almost time to get crazily excited.
World champions New Zealand are favourites – in the eyes of bookmakers and pundit multitudes alike – to retain their trophy but hosts England will fancy their chances.
All the fretting, hoping and tactical planning can now be tucked to one side after a New Zealand investment firm got its top, top folks on the case.
Overall, the brokerage gives the All Blacks a 43% chance of winning, way ahead of England (16%), South Africa (13%) and Australia (12%).
“Where the f*** are bleedin’ Ireland?” you angrily ask?
According to Forsyth Barr, Joe Schmidt’s men are the fifth most likeliest to claim the Webb Ellis trophy, at 8%.
We are followed by France (5%), Wales (3%) and that plucky, rainbow nation ‘Everyone Else’ at 1%.
The firm state combined percentage comes from an analysis of five areas:
- Using World Rugby Rankings to determine the head-to-head probabilities of any particular team beating another (which NZ leads with 41%, followed by Ireland on 15% and Australia on 11%)
- Calculating head-to-head probabilities based on the 28-year history of clashes (NZ 54%, Australia 15%, England 14%)
- Past World Cup performances; (South Africa 25%, England 21%, NZ 21%, Australia 21%, France 8%)
- Odds offered by global bookmakers (NZ 42%, England 17%, South Africa 13%, Australia 9%, Ireland 9%); and, perhaps least scientifically (sorry guys):
- A Survey of Forsyth Barr Investment Advisors (NZ 63%, England 14%, Ireland 6%, South Africa 6%)
In 2011, the Kiwi firm gave the All Blacks a 41% chance of winning the World Cup.
They conclude their analysis with this hand-washing note: Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.
