It’s getting away from Ireland.
Heading into Euro 2016, it was almost taken for granted that Ireland would qualify if they finished third in their group.
Four third-placed teams of the six groups advance to the second round of the competition and, with odds of over 66 per cent, what could go wrong? All you have to do is just not finish last.
Not so.
The way the results are panning out and the way teams are picking up victories all over France, it’s starting to look increasingly like Ireland will need a win to even secure third.
In all three of the groups that have completed two games so far, two of them already have three teams at three points or more.
In group A, Romania might fancy their chances of reaching four points too with their last game against Albania – a draw would do Ireland the world of good there.
Group A
Romania v Albania
France v Switzerland (not really relevant to Ireland)
Group B
Russia v Wales
Slovakia v England
Group C
Ukraine v Poland
Northern Ireland v Germany
That’s three groups already that could realistically have their third-placed sides boasting three or more points.
The four best third-placed teams are determined by the following criteria.
- Higher number of points obtained
- Superior goal difference
- Higher number of goals scored
- Fair play conduct
- Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system
If Ireland were to draw their remaining two games, they’d finish with three points with zero goal difference. It’s still all to play for but relying on three points to get through in third is looking like a real risky game. Especially with the upcoming fixtures.
Group D
Czech Republic v Croatia
Spain v Turkey
Czech Republic v Turkey
Croatia v Spain
Group E
Italy v Sweden
Ireland v Belgium
Belgium v Sweden
Ireland v Italy
Group F
Iceland v Hungary
Portugal v Austria
Iceland v Austria
Portugal v Hungary
Of course, a win on Saturday would put Ireland on four points and, if Italy beat Sweden at the same time, the Republic would be looking at a second-place finish.
Although Ireland are currently ranked as the third highest third-place team, that will all change as the games go on.
Groups B and C already have three teams with at least three points. Groups D and F look like they will have at least that too.
Unless Ireland get a win somewhere, their ambitions of qualifying through third will be going head-to-head with potentially the following:
Romania/Albania
Slovakia/Wales
Northern Ireland
Czech Republic/Turkey
Iceland/Austria/Portugal/Hungary
