The calculators will be out in Adelaide on Sunday morning
And so it all comes down to this. Despite having three wins from their five games in Pool B, Ireland still need a result against Pakistan in their final game to be sure of reaching the World Cup quarter-finals.
Here’s how things stand after Ireland’s eight-wicket defeat by India today:
Final fixtures: South Africa vs UAE (Wellington, Thursday 1.00am)
West Indies vs UAE (Napier, Saturday 10pm)
Ireland vs Pakistan (Adelaide, Sunday 3.30am)
First things first, while South Africa are mathematically not certain of qualification, their run rate is far ahead of the other contenders that even a shock defeat by UAE would not be enough to stop them advancing.
That leaves Pakistan, Ireland and West Indies battling it out for the final two places behind India and the Proteas.
Whoever emerges with a win from Ireland’s game against Pakistan at the Adelaide Oval will be certain to progress, but if the game ends in a tie or a no result, both sides will advance at the expense of the Windies (although the latter option looks highly unlikely given the current weather forecasts).
West Indies will be heavy favourites to beat the Emiratis and join their rivals on six points, and with their run rate already better than Ireland’s, that would likely put the Irish on a long flight home should they lose.
Pakistan’s run rate is currently superior to West Indies, and with the game in Napier set to finish hours before their contest, there is the possibility that Pakistan could be set a batting target completely independent of Ireland’s total that would see them finish ahead of the Windies regardless of whether they beat Ireland or not.
The final possible outcome rests once again on rain. While a shower might be unlikely in Adelaide, a rainout in Napier would have the same impact, sending both Ireland and Pakistan through.
We’ll be following this forecast rather closely over the coming days…
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