The calendar has flipped to another New Year and that means only thing – it’s NFL play-off time. We’ve ranked the contenders…
1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4, 1st round bye)
The defending champions, and they’ve been playing like it, a run of nine wins in ten games propelling them to the top seed in the NFC and, crucially, homefield advantage right the way until the Super Bowl. This felt like a team that had read its own reviews for the early part of the season, but since midseason, and yes, following a players-only meeting, the Seahawks have looked nigh-on unbeatable.
They’ll win it all because: The league’s stingiest defence returned to its ferocious best in the final third of season, allowing just 39 points in its last six games, an average of 6.5 per game. As a result, the offence hasn’t been asked to do a whole lot, giving the league’s best rushing attack, led by Skittles-munching Marshawn ‘Beast Mode’ Lynch and elusive quarterback Russell Wilson, the platform to chew up yards and clock in relentless fashion.
They’ll fail because: They don’t have the ball. San Diego laid the template to beat Pete Carroll’s men in Week 2, dominating time of possession and running the ball 37 times. The Chargers ran almost twice the number of plays as Seattle, and eventually wore out the Hawks’ pass rush. On the other side of the ball, Seattle offence has rarely been asked to come from behind and lacks elite weapons on the outside, so can become one-dimensional.
2 New England Patriots (12-4, 1st round bye)
The Patriots have cruised through the second half of the season. They recovered quickly from a potentially crushing 41-14 home defeat by Kansas City in Week 4, with Rob Gronkowski returning to full health and combining with Tom Brady to lay waste to opponents to the tune of nearly 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in his final 11 games.
They’ll win it all because: They look the freshest and most complete of the AFC contenders, able to rest a number of starters, including Gronkowski, against Buffalo last week. The Gronk is simply unstoppable across the middle of the field but focus on stopping him and Bill Belichick will be happy to take you on on the ground with a surprisingly effective rushing attack, or trust Brady to attack favourable coverage elsewhere.
They’ll fail because: If Gronk goes down it’s over. The injury-prone tight end plays with abandon and has paid the price on many occasions. Limited for the first quarter of the season, Brady averaged just 197 yards per game and the Patriots just 20 points en route to a 2-2 record. The Pats won ten of the next 11 games, averaging 34 points with Brady throwing for 294 yards per game.
3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4, hosts Detroit)
America’s Team is back in the postseason after a remarkable and unexpected season built upon the most efficient and balanced offence in the NFL. Quarterback Tony Romo and leading NFL rusher DeMarco Murray are both worthy of MVP consideration, while a defensive unit that many were expecting to be historically bad held up just well enough for the surging Cowboys to win the NFC East.
They’ll win it all because: They can win anywhere. Dallas went 8-0 on the road during the regular season, including a visit to Seattle where they followed the Chargers’ blueprint to a tee. The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the NFL, and they ground the Seahawks into submission, running the ball 36 times for 162 yards. We haven’t even mentioned wide receiver Dez Bryant yet – he was quiet that day but has exploded for 685 yards and ten touchdowns in the last seven weeks of the season.
They’ll fail because: They are the Cowboys and have spent the past decade or so getting in their own way in big games. Romo has a history of back-breaking mistakes to overcome, while Murray could wear down after one of the highest usage years ever for a running back. Really though, the Cowboys success will depend on their ability to continue to extract the most from their limited talent on defence.
4 Green Bay Packers (12-4, 1st round bye)
It’s hard not to rank the NFC contenders based upon how they match up with Seattle, and while we’ve seen the Cowboys go to the Northwest and win, the Packers were well beaten on their trip in Week 1.
They’ll win it all because: Aaron Rodgers is the best offensive weapon in the NFL. Athletically superior to most quarterbacks and with an almost telepathic relationship with receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, on a good day it’s hard to bet against #12 no matter the circumstances. It helps when the ground game is working too, and second year back Eddie Lacy has been running over defenders for the past seven weeks to the tune of 115 total yards per game and eight touchdowns.
They’ll fail because: The loss of Rodgers to a calf he reinjured last week would obviously be catastrophic, but even if he plays he will likely be limited. Buffalo took advantage of a Rodgers’ off day to inflict the only defeat the Packers suffered in the second half of the season, but they are very much similar to the Seahawks defensively, able to rush the quarterback from both inside and outside positions on the defensive line, taking advantage of a sometimes suspect offensive front to force Rodgers into hurried throws.
5 Denver Broncos (12-4, 1st round bye)
The AFC West champs invested in their defence as they retooled for another run at the Super Bowl, but this is still Peyton Manning’s team, and the aging gunslinger has dangerous weapons in the form of receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Julius Thomas.
They’ll win it all because: Manning can catch fire and overpower teams offensively. Sanders and the Thomas twins (no relation) combined for 3,500 yards and 32 touchdowns in the regular season. The Broncos also finally found a dependable running back, with injuries thrusting CJ Anderson into an 800-plus yard second half of the season.
They’ll fail because: While that might be good enough to get back to the Super Bowl, not enough has changed to reverse the 43-8 hammering at the hands of Seattle last year. Manning is a year older and those four neck surgeries are still on his medical history. Now 38, Manning’s arm is not as live as it once was and that showed up as he threw four picks against Cincinnati in Week 16.
6 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, hosts Baltimore)
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has played some of his best football this season, and in running back LeVeon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown has as good if not a better pair of lieutenants than for either of his Super Bowl victories.
They’ll win it all because: Big Ben can throw it all over the field while Bell has emerged into 1A to DeMarco Murray’s No.1 in the discussion of the league’s best running backs. Brown is merely one of the league’s most complete players, having achieved the rare trifecta of a receiving, passing and punt return touchdown in 2014.
They’ll fail because: This holds true for all three AFC North play-off teams, but they haven’t really survived a gauntlet to get this far, being scheduled against the brutal AFC South and NFC South divisions this year, creating a real possibility that Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati will all be found out in the postseason. The Steelers’ weakness is defending tight ends (28th in the NFL), hardly a recipe for success in an AFC field containing Gronkowski and Julius Thomas. Injury concerns over Bell are also an issue, with little depth behind the second-year star if he fails to answer the bell this weekend.
7 Detroit Lions (11-5, at Dallas)
Head coach Jim Caldwell has the Lions back in the play-offs in his first season in charge with a team built on defence, especially stopping the run, leading to a potentially mouth-watering encounter with the run-first Cowboys.
They’ll win it all because: It’s really, really hard to score points against the Lions. Only the high-powered Patriots and Packers attacks have reached the 25-point mark against the Lions this year, while teams have only managed 69 yards a game on the ground. On offence, wide receiver Calvin Johnson dealt with some injury problems early in the season but has looked more like his All-Pro self towards the end of the season.
They’ll fail because: Detroit has had a really, really hard time scoring points themselves, especially against above-average defences. In their four losses, the Lions have averaged just 11 points per game. Discipline has also been a huge problem, with defensive behemoth Ndamukong Suh, frequently the guilty party, only able to play this weekend after successfully appealing a suspension for stamping on Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.
8 Baltimore Ravens (10-6, at Pittsburgh)
The Ravens snuck into the play-offs but face the same scrutiny as Pittsburgh and Cincy: a soft schedule. The Ravens have racked up wins against the NFL’s whipping boys, but blew a ten-point lead in the final six minutes against the San Diego Chargers and lost to the Houston Texans’ fourth-string quarterback two weeks ago.
They’ll win it all because: They know they can. Champions in 2013, the Ravens have won as a wild card in the recent past and will fear nobody, not least the Steelers. Defensive lineman Haloti Ngata’s return from a drug suspension should shore up any leaks in the defence and Joe Flacco can fall back on the memory of one of the great postseasons by a quarterback two years ago.
They’ll fail because: The secondary can’t get a stop when it counts, as evidenced by the aforementioned Chargers game and a Week 8 defeat in Cincinnati. If the Ravens can’t get pressure on the quarterback, you’d fear a repeat of their earlier trip to Pittsburgh, when Ben Roethliberger rang up six touchdowns in a 43-23 win.
9 Indianapolis Colts (11-5, hosts Cincinnati)
Indy has had the AFC South pretty much sewn up for most of the year, yet hasn’t really been all that impressive. In many ways they are the mirror image of the Bengals, great quarterback and inconsistent defence, but when forced to choose between the two the safe call is with the QB, in this case Andrew Luck.
They’ll win it all because: Luck and receiver TY Hilton is as good a combination as any in the league and the third-year quarterback has already shown in his young career that he has no problem hoisting the Colts onto his shoulders.
They’ll fail because: They struggle to run the ball, yet persist with woeful former first-round pick Trent Richardson. And defensively, the Colts have been routed by any of the really good teams they have faced, surrendering 40 or more to the Steelers, Patriots and Cowboys.
10 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1, at Indianapolis)
The Bengals have beaten the Ravens twice this year, but are ranked below them here for one reason: Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle is the shakiest of the established starters in these play-offs, throwing six interceptions and fumbling three times en route to losing all three postseason appearances to date.
They’ll win it all because: The NFL’s sixth-ranked rushing attack, led by the one-two punch of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, rumbles over defences and keeps Dalton in favourable down-and-distance situations.
They’ll fail because: Dalton repeats his previous play-off calamities and gives opposing offences short fields to work with, leaving the strong Bengals defence with too little margin for error.
11 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1, hosts Arizona)
We’re reaching the dregs of the NFC now, with South champions Carolina somewhat controversially getting a home play-off game despite a losing record this season. However, the Panthers have looked far more like last season’s 12-4 unit in winning their final four games of the season, especially on defence.
They’ll win it all because: They have only given up 43 points in the last four weeks, and crushed Atlanta 34-3 in a winner-takes-all division decider last week. The running game is also back on track, with quarterback Cam Newton has looked his old self in rushing for 61 yards a game and three touchdowns during the win streak.
They won’t because: They can’t score enough points. The 34 points marked only the second time they exceeded 24 points this season and with those explosions coming against the two worst defences in the NFL.
12 Arizona Cardinals (11-5, at Carolina)
The early season fairytale story went sour as Arizona first lost starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the season and then saw capable back-up Drew Stanton also suffer an injury. So it is that third-stringer Ryan Lindley will suit up for a play-off game.
They’ll win it all because: One of the league’s meanest defences picks up a couple of turnovers and grinds out a low-scoring win in Carolina. Stanton could return the following week should they advance and give them enough of a boost to put a competitive total on the board.
They’ll fail because: They haven’t scored more than 19 points since Week 10. That’s been enough to eke out several victories, but puts far too much pressure on a good defence to be perfect every week.
