Yesterday’s wins for Carolina and Baltimore failed to get the NFL mercury rising so let’s hope today’s contests can light the touchpaper on this year’s postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
(Colts -3.5, Over/Under 47 points)
Tuesday marks the 25th anniversary of the Bengals last play-off win, and while this year marks the fourth postseason appearance in a row for the Marvin Lewis-coached, Andy Dalton-quarterbacked franchise, they have yet to make the breakthrough that their talented roster merits. Much of the blame for that has fallen on the shoulders of Dalton, whose play-off performances have been nothing short of abysmal. His chances of altering that narrative took a major blow when ace wide receiver AJ Green failed to pass the necessary concussion tests, likely forcing Cincy into even more of a run-first strategy. Fortunately for them, in the shape of burly Jeremy Hill and nifty Giovani Bernard, the Bengals have a pretty devastating rushing attack. Defensively, the Bengals finished dead last in sacks this season with just 20, and will need to reverse that trend to put pressure on Indy passer Andrew Luck.
The Colts face the opposite problems. Andrew Luck has carried a pretty average outfit to the division title in the fairly rubbish AFC South, but Indy haven’t exactly been making a case that they are real Super Bowl contenders. The offensive line has been decent in pass protection, but the team hasn’t been to run the ball to save their lives. Yet with Luck under centre and lightning fast receiver TY Hilton combining for the fourth most passes of more than 40 yards this season, the Colts possess the kind of quick-strike capability the Bengals will be lacking without Green.
Verdict: The teams met earlier in the year and Dalton had one of his bad days as the Colts won 27-0. It surely will be closer this time, but in the absence of Green we can’t see Dalton overcoming his prime-time past, so we’ll take the Colts -3.5.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
(Cowboys -6, Over/Under 48 points)
The marquee match-up of the weekend, with a pair of teams that have done their best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in recent times. The Lions last play-off win came just one year after the Bengals, but in contrast this is just their second postseason trip since 1999. Head coach Jim Caldwell has restored order to a squad that has lost its way under the previous regime, with the defence ranked No.1 against the run and third overall by Football Outsiders. With Dallas boasting the most balanced offence in the NFL and a top-three rushing attack led by NFL leading DeMarco Murray, something has to give.
Dallas’s defence, on the other hand, has been a vulnerablility all season, although defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has for the most part been able to paper over the cracks. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is among the highest paid players in the league but has failed to show the consistency you’d expect, so tonight is a great opportunity to connect with receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate and prove he merits his monster contract.
Verdict: Dallas have been much better on the road than at home this season, but the newfound consistency shown by quarterback Tony Romo this season gives us confidence that the Cowboys can progress. We’re not sure about giving the Lions the six points though, but we’ll happily bet the under of 48 points.
