We’re down to the Elite Eight of the NFL as big guns New England, Seattle, Green Bay and Denver re-enter the fray.
And the bookies are fully behind the home teams this week, the odds suggesting the Pats, Seahawks, Packers and Broncos are in for routine victories after taking wild card weekend off.
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at New England Patriots (12-4)
(Patriots -7, Over/Under 47.5)
Nobody was more disappointed with the Ravens convincing victory over the Steelers last Saturday than Tom Brady. This will be Baltimore’s fourth postseason trip to Foxborough in the past six seasons, and no defence has frustrated the Patriots star quarterback more, forcing seven interceptions and limiting him to just 238 yards per game in the three previous meetings. The Ravens won two of those meetings and came within a broken up pass of making it a clean sweep. Make no mistake, the visitors will not be cowed by their underdog status.
Defensively, the Ravens match up particularly well against New England, their weakness in the secondary not as vulnerable given the Pats’ lack of game-breakers outside, while the return of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata last week, fresh and firing after a four-game suspension, has shored up their run defence and provides the sort of interior pass rush that has troubled Brady in the past. Rob Gronkowski will again be Brady’s prime target and his match-up with the Ravens’ linebackers, particularly rookie CJ Mosley, will be key.
Offensively, the Ravens will be happy to put the game in the hands of quarterback Joe Flacco, a middling regular season passer who has transformed into more like Joe Montana in the play-offs. In his last five play-off appearances, covering the 2012 run to the Super Bowl and last week’s win over the Steelers, Flacco has thrown 13 touchdowns without an interception, and even when he can’t locate a receiver downfield, has become the master of drawing crucial pass interference penalties.
Verdict: The Ravens are past masters at saving their best play for the postseason, and last week’s display was among their best of the season. This may not be the flashiest of the four games on the slate, but it will almost certainly be among the tightest, so we’ll take the Ravens and the seven points on offer.
Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
(Seahawks -10.5, Over/Under 39.5)
The defending champions host the NFC South winners in the most apparent mismatch of the weekend. Yet to assume the No.1 seeded Seahawks will run roughshod over Carolina is to ignore the team’s recent regular season showdowns. Meetings is each of the past three seasons have all gone Seattle’s way, but by a combined margin of just 13 points, with the Panthers conceding just 41 points across the three games.a
After a shocking start to the season that saw them fall to 3-8-1, the Panthers defence rediscovered its prowess and the team is now on a five-game winning streak, but there are a couple of key factors in Seattle’s favour this time, however. For a start, the earlier three games were all on the east coast, while Seattle have homefield advantage this around, and hostile Century Link Field has been a huge factor in their recent success. Secondly, the Panthers are without star rookie defensive lineman Star Lotulelei, who suffered a broken foot in training this week. His absence will test the depth of the Panthers’ defensive line and opens them up to being worn down as the game goes on. And that’s something Seattle is built to do, brutalising opponents with running back Marshawn Lynch and forcing them to chase elusive quarterback Russell Wilson outside the pocket.
Verdict: We’re hitting the under here, which goes against our advice of last week when it comes to totals under 40, but the chances of turnovers are lessened with improved quarterback play. We also like the half-time spread of Carolina +7, based on our belief that the Panthers may be able to keep things close early on before faltering in the second half.
Dallas Cowboys (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
(Green Bay -5.5, Over/Under 52)
When everyone has had their fill of Ice Bowl nostalgia, they can settle in for what promises to be the game of the weekend. Something will have to give in the match-up of the 8-0 home Packers and the 8-0 road Cowboys, but it many ways the outcome will rest on the fitness of Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The regular season MVP favourite suffered a calf tear in their final game against Detroit a fortnight ago, and despite last week’s bye, he will have had limited, if any, practice time this week. Yet he is expected to suit up to face the Cowboys, and the Packers chances will depend on how mobile he can be. Dallas’s defence has been best when able to pressure the quarterback, and Rodgers’ ability to extend the play could have posed major problems for an overachieving pass defence.
On offence, the Cowboys should be able to reproduce the balanced attack that has brought them this far, as their strengths – good offensive line play and strong rushing attack – are those which can thrive regardless of the conditions and the Green Bay defensive front is nothing like as menacing as the Detroit Lions unit which stymied Dallas for much of last week’s wild card victory. For one of the few occasions this year, Tony Romo will be the healthier of the two quarterbacks, and he won’t be afraid to test Green Bay’s secondary with deep throws to top receiver Dez Bryant.
Verdict: It’s incredibly hard to call this one without knowing how close to 100 per cent Rodgers will be. That said, Dallas’s offence is almost certain to show up and by leading the game-winning drive against Detroit, Romo showed he can thrive in big moments. We’ll hesitantly side with Dallas, while the over also looks appealing if Rodgers can compete at something close to his level.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
(Broncos -7, Over/Under 54)
A rematch of the opening week of the season, and yet another chance for Peyton Manning to face the man who replaced him in Indy, Andrew Luck. More importantly for Manning, like Tom Brady, is that this season represents another in a dwindling number of chances of burnishing his Hall of Fame career with another Super Bowl ring, with Peyton especially eager to improve upon a postseason record of 11-12 that does not match his otherwise stellar career.
One of the reasons for Manning’s underwhelming postseason numbers can be attributed to the weather conditions. Manning has never had the strongest arm in football, and has had difficulty driving the ball to his receivers in the colder January weather. With temperatures in Denver not expected to fall too far, the weather shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but that should be as big of a relief to the Colts as they travel from their domed stadium to Mile High.
Manning’s play, though, did show signs of tailing off towards the end of the season, including throwing four picks against a Cincinnati defence that Andrew Luck carved up last week. He will hope he can rely on tight end Julius Thomas, who has been slow in returning to his touchdown-happy early-season form since returning from injury several weeks ago, as Manning will look to expose a Colts rearguard that Football Outsiders ranked 27th against opposing tight ends in the regular season.
On the opposing side of the ball, Indy has been awful running the ball all season, although Dan ‘Boom’ Herron showed signs of life against the Bengals and is a useful outlet in the passing game. But what Luck really likes to do is force the ball down the field to shifty receiver TY Hilton, yet he may be limited in this goal by Denver’s ace pass defence, led by corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. Denver’s pass rush should also be able to hurry Luck into quicker throws, so tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen will have to be productive across the middle for Indy to keep pace.
Verdict: Another tough call, but much as we respect Manning we are going to side with the Colts and the seven points. The surrounding cast in Indianapolis doesn’t match up talent-wise to the stacked Broncos line-up, however, we feel that this could be the moment for Luck to elevate himself into the discussion of the very best in the league.
(All odds via Ladbrokes)
