It’s Conference Championship week, when four will become the two that go forward to contest Super Bowl 49 in Arizona in two weeks’ time.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
(Seahawks -7.5, Over/Under 46)
The irresistible force versus the immoveable object. The NFL’s best quarterback against the Legion of Boom. It’s a repeat of the the season’s opening fixture and one which almost entirely depends on the health of Aaron Rodgers. The likely league MVP battled through a calf strain to help the Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys last week, leading a magnificent late drive to put Green Bay back in front, but only seven days on from that it is difficult to know whether the injury will be any better.
If it is, Rodgers is exactly the type of mobile threat that can succeed against Seattle, who have been susceptible to quarterbacks who can get outside the pocket and extend plays enough to allow receivers separate from Seattle’s fearsome defensive backs. Green Bay has the players to do that in Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson but if Rodgers can’t move as he would like the Seahawks defensive front will smell blood in the water and devour him. The Packers also need a productive ground game, but any limitations shown by Rodgers will only aid the Seahawks in ganging up on Eddie Lacy in the backfield.
Seattle will look to repeat their Week 1 success running the ball, when they racked up over 200 yards on the ground in a 36-16 victory. Marshawn Lynch has worn down every defence he has faced in the second half of the season, while any lapses in discipline by the Packers’ defensive front will open up running lanes for quarterback Russell Wilson, a problem that has haunted Green Bay in recent postseasons (see Colin Kaepernick’s record rushing performance for San Francisco two years ago).
Verdict: Seattle has run roughshod over every offence they have faced since mid-November, allowing just 56 points in their last seven games. Rodgers, at his best, is far superior to any quarterback they have lined up against, however, so to assume another single-digit return is unlikely. Yet even if Rodgers was fully fit, wins in Seattle are like hen’s teeth (to be honest we would have rather seen the Cowboys’ elite offensive line and running game test the Seahawks’ defence), so the fitness doubts over Green Bay’s No.12 are enough for us to pick the hosts, even giving 7.5 points.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
(Patriots -6.5, Over/Under 53.5)
The Colts pulled off the surprise of the play-offs by turning over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in convincing fashion, but this Sunday they will need to lift their game even further against Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Pats got a monkey off their backs after coming from behind to beat play-off nemesis Baltimore, and they have held the Indian sign over the Colts in recent years. New England has won the previous five encounters, racking up 20-point wins on the last three occasions.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick shows no sign of slowing down and he continues to adapt his game plans to take advantage of opponents’ weaknesses to devastating effect. Predominantly a passing offence, Belichick has zeroed in on the running game against Indy, frequently employing an extra offensive lineman to overpower the Colts in November’s 42-20 victory.
Running back has never been the most important position in the Pats’ attack, but LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray have both exploded for four touchdown performances against this defence in the past 12 months. The Pats also match up well against the Colts in the passing game, and Rob Gronkowski can be expected to find success against Football Outsiders’ 27th-ranked unit against tight ends.
On the other side of the ball, Andrew Luck will also be looking for his tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, as the Pats have an even greater susceptibility across the middle of the field, while the prospect of shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis matching up against TY Hilton on the outside is a mouthwatering one.
The Colts’ run game has been their major failing this season, but with former first round pick Trent Richardson made inactive last week, Dan Herron created enough on the ground to keep the Broncos honest and prevent them keying in completely on Luck.
Verdict: The most impressive part of last week’s Colts win was the way the offensive line kept Luck clean, and if they can do that again they can keep pace with Brady and company on the other sideline. The Patriots should win, but after seeing Indy easily handle a more talented roster last week, we’re hesitant to bet against them. The OVER, however, seems a good shout given the teams’ three meetings since Luck arrived in the NFL have averaged a cool 70 points.
[All odds via Ladbrokes]
