Can Golden State carry on their unstoppable run or will it be some more familiar faces standing tall at the end of the gruelling NBA play-offs?
After a marathon regular season of 82 games, the top 16 NBA teams have finally been selected as play-off basketball gets ready to take over the American sports landscape.
Once again, the Western Conference has dominated their Eastern rivals throughout the regular season, putting up a 263-187 record in games between the conferences, and delivering seven 50-win teams against just two in the East, putting any team hoping to represent the West in the NBA Finals at the considerable disadvantage with a much more difficult route to the championship round.
Golden State and MVP favourite Stephen Curry have been the story of the season, completing one of the most dominant regular season campaigns in NBA history, but with this group having never made it past the Conference semi-finals and a coach in his first NBA season, are they vulnerable to more seasoned opposition?
The favourite
1. Golden State Warriors 67-15
Curry and the Warriors have been the darlings of the NBA all year and with good reason. They shot out of the blocks to a 21-2 record and really haven’t let up, putting together winning streaks of eight, 11 and 16 games en route to comfortably the best record in the league. In fact, despite having had home court advantage for the play-offs locked up for over a fortnight, and cutting down on the minutes of the likes of Curry, fellow All-Star guard Klay Thompson and injury-prone rim protector Andrew Bogut, the W’s have kept on posting Ws.
Their point differential of +10.1 puts them in elite company. Only seven teams have previously reached double figures, and only one, the 1972 Milwaukee Bucks, did not go on to lift the title, and that was because they ran into the top team in the list, that year’s Los Angeles Lakers, in the Conference finals. They can score almost at will and on any given day can shoot an opponent right out of the gym, with Curry, who this year broke his own record for most three-pointers made in a season and shooting better than 50 per cent from distance since the All-Star break, posting nightly highlight reel plays and Thompson capable of incredible shooting performances like this.
In addition to their unmatched offensive firepower, several defensive metrics also rank them as the best defensive team in the league despite ranking in the middle of the pack in points allowed. Former number one pick Bogut is the big body manning the middle, but Draymond Green has emerged as a legitimate star, a sort of NBA Swiss army knife who can defend all five positions on the floor and shut down an opponent’s star player.
Coach Steve Kerr is in his first year on an NBA bench, but the former Chicago Bulls sharpshooter and former TV analyst was heavily recruited for coaching positions and has adapted quickly to the role, while the vocal Oracle Arena crowd provides another legitimate advantage, having aided Golden State’s 39-2 home record.
The contenders
2. San Antonio Spurs 55-27
Game Of Thrones is back on our screens and the Spurs are coming for another title.
Yep, the oldest gunslingers in the West are back and they mean business. After a slow start to the season had some wondering if the defending champs would even make the play-offs, future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich and veteran big man Tim Duncan are back in search of a sixth championship ring. The Spurs ended the season on a 22-4 run.
They say Father Time is undefeated but Duncan is putting up one hell of a fight. The Big Fundamental turns 39 next week and has cut his minutes to just 29 per game but he is as efficient as ever when he’s on the floor and remains a fantastic defensive presence, while guards Tony Parker and, to a lesser extent, Manu Ginobili have been to enough rodeos to be positioned to pounce on any Golden State nerves or mistakes. Those three have been the engine behind the Spurs dynasty, but all have conceded that the team’s new leader is swingman Kawhi Leonard, who has recovered from early-season injury problems to spearhead San Antonio’s late charge. Excepting LeBron, who he outplayed in during last year’s Finals, there is no better two-way player in the game right now, and his range of abilities was on full display when the Spurs thrashed the Warriors a fortnight ago.
Defeat by New Orleans in their final game shunted them from second to sixth in the tight Western Conference ranks, and a first-round series against the ornery LA Clippers is about as difficult as they come, but the Spurs have hit form at the right time and we’d be surprised if they didn’t end up in yet another Western finals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bma1zD8X3dw
3. Cleveland Cavaliers 53-29
Three months ago, the Cavaliers were a mess. Scrambling to stay relevant in the weaker Eastern Conference, with new head coach David Blatt and summer trade prize Kevin Love squarely in the firing line. But LeBron James returned from some R&R and along with point guard Kyrie Irving reinvigorated Cleveland’s season. A 12-game win streak eased concerns before the All-Star break and they have continued to crush teams in the latter part of the season, including statement victories over Golden State and an overtime epic against the Spurs, when Irving totalled a league season-high of 57 points.
There have been some hiccups along the way, with Love still struggling to fit in and LeBron’s input into playcalling somewhat unfairly raising more questions over Blatt’s status, despite the Euroleague legend at the very least overseeing the league’s best team since the calendar flipped over to 2015, fuelled by James and Irving’s offensive output and a defence that improved markedly following the trade for Denver centre Timofey Mozgov.
The Cavs finished second spot in the conference standings behind the surprising Atlanta Hawks, but make no mistake who the favourite to emerge from the East is, and likely at a much lesser toll than whoever comes out of the West for the NBA Finals.
The pretenders
4. Atlanta Hawks 60-22
The Hawks have had a remarkable season and should be rewarded with a Coach of the Year gong for former Spurs assistant Mike Budenholzer, who has taken San Antonio’s quick passing and movement offence to Atlanta and had immediate success. The Hawks wrapped up the top seed in the East weeks ago, fuelled by a 19-game winning streak that helped garner a stunning four All-Stars in centre Al Horford, forward Paul Millsap, point guard Jeff Teague and sharpshooting wing Kyle Korver, who was just a hair away from the NBA’s first ever 50-50-90 season – that is making 50 per cent of field goals, 50 per cent of three-point field goals and 90 per cent of free throws (Warriors coach Kerr did it once but in limited minutes).
Hawks fans will point to the 2004 Detroit Pistons, who won the title despite the absence of a that superstar, but they are the exception that proves the rule that without one of the game’s very best on the court, you are unlikely to win it all.
5. Los Angeles Clippers 56-26
The Clippers have continued to take advantage of the malaise surrounding Staples Center co-tenants the Lakers to make LA a Clips town, however briefly, but head into the play-offs among the most difficult teams to predict.
Their starting five is a match for anyone, led by another great year from Chris Paul and stellar defence from contract year centre DeAndre Jordan, but former Boston Celtics championship-winning coach Doc Rivers is also in charge of personnel decisions, and he has failed to stack their bench with adequate scoring options. That will hopefully be rectified by the return of shoot-first sixth man Jamal Crawford, but the Clippers remain the team least able to withstand an injury to any of their key men, while their first-round meeting with San Antonio will take out one of the two teams best equipped to trouble the Warriors.
6. Houston Rockets 56-26
James Harden finally seemed to give a rat’s ass about defence and developed into Stephen Curry’s main rival for MVP. The former Oklahoma City guard is second in the league in scoring and is also the main creative force for a Rockets offence that ranks near the very top of the league. Even without defensive force Dwight Howard, who has missed half the team’s games this season, Harden has engineered enough points to keep Houston right in the thick of the Western play-off chase, where they eventually finished second to earn a slightly easier match-up against the Dallas Mavericks.
Howard has been working his way back into the mix of late and if he can anchor the Rockets in the middle they could be a very dangerous unit. The fear, though, in the absence of feisty point guard Patrick Beverley, is that teams will throw an endless stream of bodies at Harden, ultimately wearing him down over the course of a postseason of successive seven-game series.
7. Memphis Grizzlies 55-27
The Grit ‘n’ Grind Grizzlies are a throwback to the more methodical offences of the past, eschewing the trend for three-point shooting – they rank 29th out of 30 in three-point attempts and not much better in rate of success – in favour of an old-fashioned low-post oriented system. The duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are a handful for anyone around the basket, but outside of them and point guard Mike Conley, Memphis lacks scoring punch, especially if inconsistent forward Jeff Green isn’t firing on all cylinders.
With Conley, Gasol and defensive stalwart Tony Allen also dealing with injuries that will see them head to the postseason at less than 100 per cent, it’s hard to see how the Grizzlies will be able to advance to the later stages, with the hot shooting Golden State likely awaiting them in Round 2.
The enigma
8. Chicago Bulls 50-32
Derrick Rose has played just 50 games during yet another interrupted season, yet the Bulls put up another 50-win season, and fans waiting in the hope that their former MVP guard could return to the form that might make Chicago a dangerous dark horse for the title have been focusing on the positives in the 26-year-old’s latest comeback.
Rose put up 22 points and eight assists in just 28 minutes against the admittedly dismal Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday, but but was again bothered by his knee and sat out the second half of Wednesday’s win over the depleted Hawks. The high-intensity Bulls are an entirely different proposition with him in any sort of form and are perhaps the team most likely to take a decent run at bumping off LeBron in the Eastern Conference.
The rest
9. Toronto Raptors 49-33
The Raptors have struggled since getting out to a 37-17 record, winning just 12 of their final 28 games to finish the regular season to narrowly miss out on the franchise’s first 50-win season, but the league’s only Canadian squad have looked better over the past fortnight and the return of All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry from back spasms could see them return to their early-season form.
The Atlantic Division champions will have home court advantage and an excellent record against first-round series opponents Washington in their favour as well, so a first play-off series win since 2001 will be the least expected by the Raps’ hardcore fanbase.
10. Portland Trail Blazers 51-31
I toyed with putting Portland at the bottom of the rankings, but that’s probably a bit harsh on a team that has plugged away since the devastating loss of shooting guard Wesley Matthews to a season-ending Achilles tear a month ago.
The Blazers have won just half their games in that span though, and unfortunately that won’t cut it in the Western play-offs. LaMarcus Aldridge has battled gamely through injury and Damian Lillard can provide elite production at the point, but Matthews was the team’s third option on offence and its best perimeter defender.
11. Dallas Mavericks 50-32
Dirk Nowitzki is slowing down but remains a lethal shooter, however the Mavs’ efforts to surround the German with a side capable of repeating 2011’s fairytale title run have been patchy at best.
The team traded for Boston Celtics’ moody point guard Rajon Rondo in December in the hope he would tighten up a leaky defence, and he has to some extent, but the 29-year-old’s abysmal shooting (42 per cent, 39 per cent from the free throw line) has thrown the once smooth Dallas offence off track. They may have reached 50 wins, but this is not a team that will terrify any of the big guns in the Western Conference.
12. Washington Wizards 46-36
Either Washington or Toronto has to make the second round, and if the Raptors have had a bad second half then the Wizards have been even worse, enduring a midseason 10-18 funk that cost them a top-four seed in the East. Like Toronto, they have turned things around a little in recent weeks as the schedule has gone in their favour, but at times they look lost on offence, and for a team with weapons like lightning quick guard John Wall and long-range shooter Bradley Beal, that has put a target squarely on head coach Randy Wittman, who will likely receive his marching orders without at least one play-off series win.
13. New Orleans Pelicans 45-37
The Pelicans overhauled the Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City Thunder with a fine second half of the season, and while they aren’t likely to make any serious waves in the play-offs, the chance to see the force of nature that is Anthony Davis cut his teeth in the postseason is an exciting one. Davis, in just his third NBA season, has put up 24 points and 10 rebounds, numbers which, combined with his superb defence, would make him a lead MVP contender in many other years.
14. Milwaukee Bucks 41-41
Head coach Jason Kidd will have taken great pleasure in clinching their play-off spot against the Brooklyn team that got rid of him two years ago. And Kidd’s success in turning a record 67-loss Bucks team into the East’s sixth seed – all in the absence of injured rookie star Jabari Parker – has certainly lifted his coaching reputation. The Bucks are long, and extremely athletic and will be a tough first-round opponent.
Also, we get Play-off Greek Freak, so high-fives all round:
15: Boston Celtics 40-42
Hats off to head coach Brad Stevens, who saw his two best players traded early in the season but kept plugging away with a team of unfashionable names until the arrival of point guard Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix at the trade deadline. Thomas has been a revelation in Boston, instantly sparking the Celtics into one of the most fun teams to watch in the league and instigating a roaring 17-7 finish to a season many expected would end with one of the NBA’s worst records. Unfortunately, LeBron and Cleveland await in the first round, but while their postseason experience may be short, the opportunity for some play-off seasoning will stand to these young Celtics down the road.
16. Brooklyn Nets 38-44
It’s a sign of the gulf between the two conferences that two Eastern teams carry on having won less than half their games while the 45-win Oklahoma City Thunder sit at home, but at least Boston gave it their all and finished strong. With Russian oligarch Mikhail Prokorov seemingly losing interest in his NBA toy, the Nets have at times looked equally non-plussed about making the play-offs, getting blown out by Milwaukee and Chicago on successive nights this week as they fought Indiana for the final spot. Yet the past fortnight has also shown that they can be dangerous, with a 33-point win over the Wizards and a victory over Cleveland also in their recent past.
[Game of Thrones/Spurs pic from Bleacher Report]
