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29th January 2020
01:34pm GMT

First Seed: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Wales Second Seed: Ireland, Australia, France, Japan Third Seed: Scotland, Argentina, Fiji, ItalySo, if the draw was taking place today, Ireland would land themselves in a RWC 2023 group with at one of South Africa, New Zealand, England or Wales. But, it's not, and seeding isn't everything. Ireland were seeded second in Australia's pool in 2011 and came top. Japan were seeded third and topped Ireland's pool last year. Ireland still have 10 games to get themselves back into the top four in 2020. These are;
Six Nations Ireland v Scotland Ireland v Wales England v Ireland Ireland v Italy France v Ireland Summer Tour Australia v Ireland Australia v Ireland November Internationals Ireland v Australia Ireland v South Africa Ireland v JapanThe idea of a "four-year cycle" around a World Cup is bandied about a lot in rugby, and Rassie Erasmus' South Africa largely debunked that theory a few months ago, but it has some merit when you consider the above. If Ireland were to have a poor Six Nations, struggle Down Under this summer and then manage only one win from three in November, all of which is entirely possible, not only would they fail to make top seeding but the potential for them to fall into a third seeding position is entirely possible. It's a complicated system that decides the rankings, were teams playing against each other effectively "trade" points. These points are calculated according to their relative standings in the rankings, which team is home or away and then the margin of victory. It sounds unthinkable, but as it stands there are 5.22 rankings points separating Ireland (84.45 points) in 5th and Scotland (79.23 points) in 9th. If Ireland were to lose by less than 20 points, that gap would shorten to 1.56 points. If Ireland were to lose by more than 20 points, Scotland would leapfrog Ireland in the rankings, and Ireland would drop to 7th place. That's only after one game this year. These are nightmare scenarios, and it's entirely possible Ireland will enjoy a much better season than they did in 2019. However, you can't say that the Six Nations doesn't matter, or that the games in the summer or November are "friendlies". After all, if the World Cup is the be-all and end-all of success, as we've been led to believe, then Ireland's chances will be massively affected by what happens this year.
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