

The National Football League returns for 2026, and once again Division 1 looks impossibly tight. With reigning champions, new managers, major retirements and AFL absentees all in play, predicting the final standings is no easy task. Still, here’s how we see Division 1 finishing this spring, and why.

Kerry remain the benchmark. Division 1 champions, Munster champions and All-Ireland winners in 2025, Jack O’Connor’s side enter the league as favourites once again. The addition of Kieran Donaghy to the backroom team strengthens an already elite setup. Kerry’s depth, leadership and consistency should see them top the table. The Kingdom right now are in a Golden Age, with David Clifford in the form of his life, Paudie Clifford, Seán O'Shea, Joe O'Connor and captain Paul Geaney around him, they look very tough to stop.

Mayo look primed to challenge. Andy Moran begins his first season in charge, with the return of all-time top scorer Cillian O’Connor a major boost. James Carr and Rob Hennelly are also back, while Paddy Tally’s arrival adds experience behind the scenes. AFL losses remain a factor, namely Kobe McDonald joining Oisín Mullin down under, but Mayo’s league pedigree should carry them deep into the campaign.

Donegal continue to be one of the most reliable sides in Division 1. Ulster champions and All-Ireland finalists in 2025, Jim McGuinness’ team retains Michael Murphy, even with Paddy McBrearty now retired. Their physical edge and tactical clarity should once again translate into strong league form. We expect a similar league campaign to last season = a blistering start before cooling the jets towards the end and preparing for Championship.

This is a transition year for Dublin. Ger Brennan takes charge following success with Louth, but the retirements of Stephen Cluxton and John Small, along with Brian Fenton ruling out a return, leave big gaps to fill in the team. A mid-table finish while getting minutes into some of Dublin's new stars would represent steady progress during a period of change.

Galway remain competitive but face challenges. Connacht champions last year, but a disappointing exit at the Quarter Final stage followed. Pádraic Joyce’s side will again rely heavily on home form, with several absentees reducing squad depth. However, they have enough talent in the side, and survival without getting dragged into trouble would mark another solid league campaign.

Fresh from Division 2 success, Monaghan return to the top tier under Gabriel Bannigan. Karl Gallagher’s return from the AFL is a boost, but multiple retirements including the likes of Darren Hughes, Kieran Duffy & Karl O'Connell mean adaptation will be required. Home fixtures could be key to staying afloat, and never doubt how Monaghan can defy the odds to survive in Division 1, like they've done before.

Surprise entry here. Armagh’s task is complicated by a lengthy injury list, including several major absentees, including Rian O'Neill, Rory Grugan, Niall Grimley, Jemar Hall & Ciaron O'Hanlon. They also face tough away fixtures against the likes of Monaghan and Roscommon who will be desperate to win their home games in order to stay up. Despite Kieran McGeeney’s experience and strong leadership, the cut-throat nature of Division 1 could lead to them slipping under. After all, Tyrone got relegated last year with 7 points!

Roscommon face a tough return to Division 1. Mark Dowd begins his first season in charge amid key retirements, including stars like Ciarán Murtagh, and an opening day trip to Killarney is not the ideal start to their campaign. Late home fixtures may help, and we do expect a Rossie revival near the end, but survival looks a serious challenge.
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23rd January 2026
02:40pm GMT