Why Liverpool will have to score at least three goals to win the Champions League

Liverpool's players, if they were so inclined, would have watched Real Madrid's semi final second leg against Bayern Munich and thought, 'We can have these'.

24 hours on, the Real players must have been thinking the same thing. The usual procedure, the later one goes in a cup competition, is for knock-out games to get tense and tight. For each goal to come at a premium. Real defeated Bayern 4-3 on aggregate but that second leg alone could have ended 5-5. Marcelo was good going forward again but caught out several times, Sergio Ramos was lucky not to concede a penalty for clattering Robert Lewandowski and Lucas Vazquez had a tough night of it as emergency right back. Liverpool and Roma went several better/worse the next night. The defending for Liverpool's two goals was pathetic whereas Jurgen Klopp's side looked ropey as hell in trying to see out a 7-3 aggregate lead from the start of the second half. One could argue that James Milner's own goal was merely unfortunate but Dejan Lovren took a wild hack with his clearance that surprised no-one but his teammate, who caught it flush in the face. Lovren then backed off to allow Stephen El-Shaarawy to shoot before Loris Karius inexplicably palmed the ball into Edin Dzeko's path for Roma's second. Karius, at that stage, was fortunate to still be on the pitch after he had pulled down Dzeko in the box. Liverpool got a reprieve there but they could easily point to the deliberate shove the woeful Costa Manolas got away with on Sadio Mané. There was not too much he could do with Radja Nainggolan's thunder-bolt third for Roma but his performance levels deteriorated badly as the game went on and must be a concern for Klopp. The final of Liverpool's four conceded on the night came from Ragnar Klavan's hand-ball and Karius opting to dive even though Jordan Henderson had tipped him off that he had a tendency to blast his penalties down the middle. The match also saw Roma go after Trent Alexander-Arnold and have a lot of success in that regard. El Shaarawy got in behind him on several occasions and his rushed clearance and hand-ball could well have resulted in a Roma penalty and red card. The defender is only 19 and will get better from the tough experiences he plays through but Real Madrid's coaches and players will have noted him a a weak spot in a Liverpool back four that can most definitely be got at. Liverpool's saving grace, as it has been plenty of times this season, is the cracking front three they possess. If Cristiano Ronaldo, Marco Asensio and Karim Benzema can barely wait to take a run at the Liverpool defence the feeling is mutual for Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané. The Reds trio have scored 29 goals to date in the competition and will attempt to rip into Real in Kiev, later this month. Genuine pace troubles Los Blancos, as Tottenham, Juventus and, at times, Bayern have proved. Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba did a lot of damage out wide and had either of Bayern's Robert Lewandowski or Thomas Mueller been on form, the Germans could have won at a canter. Keylor Navas pulled off a couple of stunning saves to redeem himself after clangers in the first leg and the second leg against Juventus. Raphael Varane, meanwhile, was the sole beacon of defensive reliability for the Spaniards. Ramos is always capable of losing the plot but he did do a decent job of shackling Lewandowski. If the Champions League final were a boxing match, Liverpool and Real Madrid would be two knock-out merchants who always went out swinging. They could surprise us yet and go 120 minutes without either side scoring a goal. In reality, though, Liverpool will need to score at least three goals to win this final as their defence won't get through the game without conceding a couple. Real have scored 30 goals in 12 Champions League games this season, an average of 2.5 per game. What of Liverpool? They've got 40 in 12 and, if you add in the qualifier against Hoffenheim, 46 in 14. Hold on tight.