You can pretty much taken it as given that players not named in Ireland’s first two squads for their warm-up matches will not be travelling to the World Cup.
The exception to this rule, of course, is Johnny Sexton.
The Leinster out-half was not in two squads – Wales and Scotland – but no injuries have been reported. Sexton is being cotton-wooled.
Bad news for the likes of Craig Gilroy, Tadhg Furlong, who has ‘a niggle’, and Kieran Marmion.
The only player that stands a chance is Marty Moore and he faces a big fitness test if and when he lines out for Leinster against Ulster next weekend.
The devastating hip injury sustained by Tommy O’Donnell, against Wales, has all but decided Ireland’s 17 forwards for the World Cup. Outside bets are Jack Conan and Dan Tuohy, who both start on Saturday.
The big ponderables are all in the backline.
On the assumption that Joe Schmidt goes with a 17/14 split between forwards and backs there are 14 spots with about 20 players jostling for position.
Here are the three players that could book themselves onto the World Cup plane with outstanding performances.
Luke Fitzgerald
Back on the left wing – a position Joe Schmidt prefers him at.
Much of the momentum of his positive re-appearance in the green jersey against the Scots, in March, was drained by Fitzgerald having to go in for season-ending surgery on his shoulder.
He has proved his fitness to the Irish management, this week, and wears the No 11 jersey on Saturday.
With Andrew Trimble’s foot injury resurfacing against Wales, Fitzgerald could lock in a starting left wing slot for the World Cup.
His line breaks, defenders beaten and offloading stats were impressive against Scotland. If he replicates his last Six Nations outing, he will be on the brink of his first ever World Cup.
Simon Zebo
Simon Zebo must have viewed Thursday’s team announcement with mixed emotions.
He scored a try and set one up for Felix Jones after playing the second half, against Wales, on the left wing.
For all of his recently-found responsibility, Zebo faces a stern character challenge each time he laces up for his country.
In the eyes of many pundits, Jones is a virtual lock for Schmidt’s 31-man squad.
However, if Zebo can prove solid in defence and delivers results in attack, Schmidt may look upon him as the second fullback his squad needs. That would open up the possibility of Paddy Jackson making the squad as a third out-half.
Ian Madigan
A start in the 10 jersey gives Madian the perfect opportunity to bat down the claims of Jackson as Sexton’s deputy.
The Ulsterman had an iffy day at the goal-kicking tee, in Cardiff, but played exactly how Schmidt told him to. He proved that he was fit for purpose, whatever the purpose may be.
Sexton getting injured in the World Cup would be a disaster so Madigan needs game time.
He is well regarded within the Irish squad and has quelled some of his wilder urges of late.
What he needs to prove, first off, is that he can kick at 90% when it counts.
