We’re glad we’re not making the decisions.
It’s less than 24 hours until we learn the names of the 31 men that will make up Ireland’s Rugby World Cup squad and while the vast majority of those currently stationed at Carton House will already know their fate, there are sure to be several nervous faces as head coach Joe Schmidt fills in the final few seats on the plane to England.
Schmidt must submit his selection today, with an official announcement coming tomorrow at lunchtime, and here are the three issues we reckon have been giving the New Zealander the most trouble.
1. Do we take a chance with our front row?
With everyone fit there would be little question that Cian Healy is the starting loosehead and that Marty Moore, as he has done for club and country over the past 18 months, would be pushing Leinster team-mate Mike Ross for the tighthead spot.
However, with neither fully fit following offseason surgeries and yet to play a part in Ireland’s warm-up schedule, Schmidt must consider the wisdom of entering the tournament having only seen three of his five chosen props face live rounds.
Healy, who had surgery on his neck in May, has shown encouraging signs in recent training sessions and his status as a world-class operator means he should be included, even he is not available for Ireland’s opening game against Canada.
Moore, meanwhile, has recovered from a shoulder operation but has been suffering from foot pain and spent time in a walking boot last week. The need for dependable back-up for Mike Ross means Schmidt will be wary of taking any chances and could cost Moore his spot, with Connacht’s Nathan White, who was solid if unspectacular on his first international start on Saturday against Wales, profiting.
Michael Bent’s ability to perform adequately on either side of the scrum makes him the safe pick and thus favourite for the fifth slot, but if Joe is feeling really adventurous he could turn to yet another Leinster tighthead in the shape of Tadhg Furlong, the hulking 22-year-old who came off the bench to make his debut when replacing White at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.
2. Bowe? Fitzgerald? Earls? Zebo? Trimble? Kearney? Jones? McFadden? My head hurts….
Schmidt’s options in the back three are such that if all were fit then several deserving candidates were almost certainly going to be disappointed.
With Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne nailed on, and Ian Madigan able to cover at inside centre, a typical squad split would leave five places to cover full-back, both wings and back-up at 13, and it could be argued that Rob Kearney and Tommy Bowe are the only players that can rest easy.
That leaves Schmidt to choose three from Simon Zebo, Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls, Andrew Trimble, Dave Kearney, Felix Jones and Fergus McFadden.
Zebo’s outing at full-back against Scotland will have reassured Schmidt that he can employ the Munster man’s gamebreaking speed and agility, and could spell bad news for Jones, while Fergus McFadden has had little action this month and has probably seen others pass him by.
That leaves Fitzgerald, Earls, Trimble and Dave Kearney fighting for two places, and it’s really anyone’s guess who gets the nod, with each having plenty to offer.
Kearney has been tagged with the ‘flying in training’ label and his performance on Saturday against Wales backed that up.
Trimble is a Schmidt favourite, who let’s not forget was Ireland’s player of the year in 2014. Picked up an injury against Wales in Cardiff three weeks ago but played a full 80 minutes in Ulster’s preseason defeat by Edinburgh at the weekend.
Earls and Fitzgerald both have the ability to cover outside centre and so could be in direct competition for a place in the squad. Both played and looked lively in patches against Wales, but could Earls’ injury against Wales have swung the pendulum in Fitzgerald’s favour?
3. Time to take a real chance and avoid leaving one of the above home?
It’s a tactic already used by Australia’s Michael Cheika and Warren Gatland, who named his Wales squad today.
Both have chosen to bring just two specialist hookers in their initial 31, safe in the knowledge that they will be able to call on reinforcements should injuries arise to either of their frontline pair.
Gatland cited that very fact today when saying that the proximity of the tournament to Wales (two of their pool matches are actually in Cardiff) made a replacement call-up that much easier, so Schmidt could opt to take a chance at either hooker or scrum-half in order to accommodate Moore or an extra option in the back three.
Ian Madigan has been touted as potential cover at scrum-half, so if Schmidt does look to free up an extra slot elsewhere it could well be his Leinster half-back partner Isaac Boss who misses out.
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