State of the Nation: Win tomorrow and a clear path to the last four emerges

It was always going to come to this.

Ireland take on France at the Millennium Stadium on Sunday [kick-off 4:45pm] and top spot in Pool D is up for grabs. Les Bleus have been functional, at best, in totting up their three wins while Ireland started like a storm and were worryingly becalmed in London last weekend. All that stands for nought heading into Sunday's game. Beat France and Ireland will have all the momentum they need heading into a Cardiff quarter-final against Argentina. Ireland have won all of their last five encounters with los Pumas. Here is the current State of the Nation...

Form

Ireland have scored 14 tries in three games and have taken 14 points from a possible 15. Suspicions that the opening victories over Canada and Romania may have been too much of a cruise were proved correct, last Sunday, when they struggled to put Italy, led by a limping Sergio Parisse, away. Keith Earls bagged an early try but there was little else to get excited by. Indeed, Ireland reverted to their safety-first kicking game for the final 30 minutes as they focused on the result rather than the scoreline, or entertaining the green-clad masses. France recorded their business-like win over Italy in their opener but then flattered to deceive against Romania and Canada. Frederic Michalak, Rabah Slimani, Sofiane Guitoune and Bernard le Roux have done well but, as a team, France have yet to click yet. They are declaring themselves as underdogs for this clash so may be setting themselves up for a spin of the ball.

Injuries

Ireland had been able to call on a full pack for their crunch clash after Rob Kearney and then Jared Payne proved their fitness. However, Payne is on his way home with a broken foot and Keith Earls starts his second successive match in the 13 jersey. The worry about Kearney, now, is that they may be short of that bruising encounter that Ireland got from Italy. France will come at them, hotter and heavier, and Kearney cannot back down. Remy Grosso was unfortunate to miss out on initial selection for the French World Cup squad but an unfortunate knee injury for Yoann Huget meant the Castres winger was called up. Otherwise, apart from niggles and sprains, France have been spared from serious ailments.

Player to watch

We opted for Keith Earls last week but, this time out, Johnny Sexton will be the key man. If the Leinster outhalf can exert the same influence on events as he did back in February, in the Six Nations, Ireland will be halfway to victory. Last time out, Mathieu Bastareaud took several charges at Sexton and sent him sprawling on a couple of occasions. The Irishman bounced back, each time, and kicked 15 points in an 18-11 win. France are not going to change those pressing tactics, as prop Eddy Ben Arous suggested this week. He declared, "I am going to hunt him down as often as possible." Prop versus outhalf - Sexton would welcome the contest.

What Ireland need

A one-point win will do. Get that and Ireland will, barring a shock Namibia triumph, face Argentina in the last eight at the Millennium Stadium. If they lose, they will be in the same ground 24 hours earlier... against the All Blacks. https://twitter.com/rugbyworldcup/status/651455826213912576/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw There is one other outcome and it is not to be ruled out. There have been two draws in the last four Tests between these sides. Were that to happen again, Ireland would advance as pool winners as they have a better points differential: +84 to +72.

What they say

"Every team has certain individuals who can break the game up and who will be more of a threat to the opposition. We have those players too."

- Simon Easterby not fazed by Louis Picamoles & co.

What the French say

"He’s the Zlatan Ibrahimovic of rugby."

- Unnamed Racing 92 player on his former teammate, Johnny Sexton

Pic of the week

Ireland were hard at it in the gym again this week They also had some down-time and caught up with some Irish sporting legends. https://twitter.com/IrishRugby/status/652007308101292032