The formalities, fun-fair rides and Tier 2 nations are out of the way – Ireland now face five huge matches in 27 days if they want to win their first ever World Cup.
It is hard to tell whether Italy and France are poorer than we expected, but both sides have struggled against the likes of Canada and Romania.
Ireland, on the other hand, have wiped the floor with both sides.
The first real test for Joe Schmidt’s men should be posed at the Olympic Stadium on Sunday by a side that beat them as recently as March 2013.
Both sides have come a long way from that fateful, scorching day in Rome. Italy have kept Jacques Brunel but slipped back.
Ireland swapped Grand Slam-winning coach Declan Kidney for Joe Schmidt and soared – from a rankings low of 8th to 2nd in August [we’re now 4th] and, more importantly, successive Six Nations championships.
Schmidt has dealt well with two injury snags to select a gutsy XV.
By all accounts, stats, form guides and gut feelings, Ireland should have too much for the Azzurri. World Cups are not always that predictable, however.
Here is the current State of the Nation…
Form
Italy sorely missed their inspirational captain Sergio Parisse for their opening matches. Parisse is expected to feature on Sunday but will be far from match fit.
The Italians were also hit with a hammer blow, before a RWC2015 ball was kicked, when midfielder Luca Morisi was struck down by injury.
They nagged away at France in their opener but could never get close enough to truly threaten an upset.
They followed that up with an altogether unconvincing win over Canada, when a split-hair TMO decision went in their favour.
Ireland have racked up 94 points and 13 tries in their opening two games, albeit against the Canadians and Romania.
A slew of Irish players are in form, most notably Simon Zebo, Keith Earls, Dave Kearney and just about any back that has caught a whiff of game-time.
Injuries
Ireland’s first injury speed bump has been negotiated without the bumpers getting jarred – Robbie Henshaw is back in the mix and in the No 12 jersey.
A gluteal sprain and a foot injury have forced the non-selection of two men that you would have banked on starting this match – Rob Kearney and Jared Payne.
For all the talk, and defence, of Payne, there is a suspicion that he may have been pulled back from this game before a cumbersome Irish forward trod on his toes in training.
Kearney would have, no doubt, featured at fullback had the game been a must-win. Schmidt says the Leinster man will be fit to face France, if called upon, on Sunday week.
As it is, and with Zebo in flying form, Schmidt can afford to rest him up for the crunch game against France.
Player to watch
We will all be closely watching the half-back pairing of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton again – both had good outings against Canada – but all eyes will be on the man wearing 13.
For the 14th time in 47 Test matches, Keith Earls gets a chance at the spot he covets most.
The Munster man has won the trust of his coach after injury denied him a chance to play under the Kiwi for his first two years.
Earls is showing all the sensational form that won him a spot on the 2009 Lions Tour and that saw him bag five World Cup tries in 2011.
His pace and ability to step his man, or men, is fantastic and he is the one back that can provide line breaks from midfield. His defence has improved massively but he is still capable of a major gaffe every couple of games.
Schmidt will hope that flaw will be buried, once and for all, in the Olympic Stadium.
What Ireland need
Now, we said that this match was not a must-win but, essentially, Ireland really, really need to win it.
If they do, they are still on course to meet Argentina in the last eight. If not, Ireland would, most likely, need to defeat France at a World Cup for the first time just for the honour of meeting the world champion All Blacks at the Millennium Stadium.
There is no need for bonus points or for a rake of tries to be scored – as nice as that would be.
Priority number one is getting over that finishing line with a point to spare and as many uninjured men as possible.
Anything after that is a bonus, but it would be great to see this excellent start maintained with some more sublime tries, punishing mauls and crumpling Italian scrums.
What they say
“We felt that Keith Earls, in pre-season, had shown a real sharpness at outside centre. [Playing Earls 13] allows us to have Dave Kearney and Tommy Bowe on the pitch at the same time.”
– Joe Schmidt on his revamped backline
What the Italians say
“Murray is very physical and controls the team’s tactics fantastically well and has a good kick. He’s a complete player and possibly the best scrum-half in the world.”
– Italian scrum-half Edoardo Gori on our Conor
Pic of the week
While Healy did this in the midweek gym session….
Conor Murray did this…
