Ireland or England: Who really deserves to be favourites for the Six Nations?

Joe Schmidt pays no heed to favourites’ tags but, still, it’s nice to know Ireland are a feared entity after a few years of slipping down the rankings

In early January, most bookmakers rated England as favourites for the 2015 Six Nations. Ireland are reigning champions but slipping in, slightly under the radar, sounded good to us. English coach Stuart Lancaster then lost – for most if not all of the tournament – Owen Farrell, Ben Morgan, Joe Launchbury, Ben Foden and Manu Tuilagi.

Ireland, on the other hand, are welcoming back Sean O’Brien, Iain Henderson, Conor Murray and Marty Moore, with Cian Healy and Johnny Sexton in line for returns against France.

Granted, several key players are still out, but one look at Ireland’s squad for their first two matches suggests Joe Schmidt has two experienced options in each position, with surplus out wide, at hooker, flanker and scrum-half.

A visit to five major betting sites [including operators in England and France] shows Ireland as out-and-out favourites in three cases. Another two sites have them level pegging [15/8] with England. Let us assess why both Ireland and England are deemed streets ahead of the competition before looking at the other contenders.

Strengths

Coaches: Schmidt and Lancaster are both highly regarded by their players and are renowned for tailoring game-plans in an attempt to out-manoeuvre opponents.

While Lancaster got one over Schmidt last year at Twickenham, and Declan Kidney the three times before that, the New Zealander will target their Dublin meeting, in March, as a win at all costs affair. Lancaster’s reputation, like Kidney’s when he was in charge of Ireland, was severely dented by a summer trip to New Zealand. Schmidt, who has led Ireland to nine wins in his last 10 matches, will have had the England match circled in red for a number of months and will see it as Ireland’s greatest test ahead of the World Cup.

Back row: A wealth of ball-carrying, line-breaking and break-down foraging options in both squads. The likes of Chris Henry, Ben Morgan and Robin Copeland may not be available but Irish and English back rows are impressive. Schmidt is likely to use Peter O’Mahony as his enforcer/spoiler with Jordi Murphy the ball-carrier and the indefatigable Jamie Heaslip for spade-work.

The breakdown has proven key in recent years and any team presenting clean, quick ball here holds the key. The English back row of Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola [later replaced by Ben Morgan] won this battle, over Ireland, at Twickenham last year and hold the edge. Vunipola has been in devastating for this season but Ireland should be able to match his broken play impact if Sean O’Brien returns for their March 1 date at the Aviva Stadium.

World-class players in key positions: In jerseys No 5 (Lawes/O’Connell), No 7 (Robshaw/O’Brien), No 9 (Care/Murray) and No 15 (Brown/R.Kearney), both sides have exceptional players that, in effect, cancel each other out. Ireland hold the edge at loose-head (Cian Healy over Joe Marler) and out-half (Johnny Sexton, when fit, over George Ford). Everywhere else across the park, the sides are evenly matched. If Ireland get Andrew Trimble back for the latter stages of the tournament, their back three would shade their English counterparts.

WEAKNESS: If both teams have a soft-spot, it would be the lack of dead-eyed goal-kickers at Test level. Ian Madigan and George Ford are set to deputise for Sexton and Owen Farrell [for the opening fixtures]. They have 19 Test caps between them but only five starts and zero in the Six Nations. Both have decent kick percentage returns for their club but keeping the stats above 80% at international level is another matter.

Best of the rest

Wales [3/1]:  Warren Gatland’s men are always capable of getting on a roll. Many of their finest players – Dan Lydiate, Jamie Roberts, Mike Phillips – have struggled in the Top 14 and, as a result, the national team has suffered. Their squad is somewhat settled, with only the likes of Liam Williams, Rhys Webb and Jake Ball threatening to force their way into the coach’s starting line-up.

For a squad with an average age of just over 26, there is a lingering sense that the Welsh set-up has stalled. A rousing start, against England, would be just the tonic for the tournament’s most dominant side over the past decade.

France [6/1]: Phillipe Saint-André was first out of the blocks when it came to naming his squad and there are some exciting names involved with Les Bleus, including Teddy Thomas, Rory Kockott and Noa Nakaitaci. There were signs of a French revival, the previous month, following wins over Fiji and Australia. Defeat to a rabid Argentine side threw the rugby-loving nation into despair again and Saint-André may find himself under intense pressure if France do not, at the very least, show signs of competing for Six Nations silverware.

Scotland [33/1]: Vern Cotter – Schmidt’s former boss at Clermont – has added steel to Scotland since his appointment, in summer 2014. The Scots returned home from North America on a winning streak and extended it by defeating Argentina at Murrayfield. The All Blacks denied them a history-making win, thanks to a late comeback, but a sense of belief has been instilled.

Italy [250/1]: The Azzurri slipped back, in 2014, following two years of genuine progress under Jacques Brunel. The famous Roman triumph over Ireland, in March 2013, is a fading memory and the coach has few new faces to call on. Callow youth is mixed with grizzled experience. Winger Leonardo Sarto has proven he can score Test tries against the very best but Italy, like France, need a goal-kicker who can dispatch scoring opportunities more than anything else.

Who are SportsJOE tipping?

Patrick McCarry: I backed England before Owen Farrell and Manu Tuilagi picked up their lengthy injuries, but I’ll stick with that as I fancy England to beat Wales on Friday night. My top three: ENGLAND, IRELAND, WALES.

Neil Treacy: Ireland to retain their title, but there won’t be a Grand Slam. Despite last year’s victory in Paris, I still think there’s a mental block when it comes to playing France, and if they start their campaign with a good performance against Scotland, they’ll come to Dublin with a lot of confidence. My top three: IRELAND, ENGLAND, FRANCE

[Odds via Ladbrokes]

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