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15th December 2017
10:14am GMT
The track record of 33-year-old wingers-cum-centres coming back from injury and re-establishing themselves as forces in international rugby is just about slim to none.
Bowe plays in one of the most interchangeable positions in the sport, and with Jacob Stockdale, Andrew Conway, Jacob Stockdale, Keith Earls, Jacob Stockdale, Adam Byrne, Jacob Stockdale, Dave Kearney and Jacob Stockdale all selected ahead of Ireland's second all-time leading try scorer last month, it's hard to see Bowe earning another central contract given that his international involvement this year has been limited to just two appearances off the bench.
Sadly, a very fine international career looks like it has come to an end.
16. Andrew Trimble
A lot of what was said about Bowe can also be said of Trimble as Ireland's 2014 Player of the Year begins to gather logs and food as he prepares to set up base camp in the international wilderness.
Trimble started in last year's historic win over New Zealand, and he also got a run in the return game against the All Blacks in Dublin two weeks later, but he featured just once in this year's Six Nations; a substitute appearance against France where Joe Schmidt preferred both Simon Zebo and Keith Earls.
Zebo's exile will almost certainly be filled by Stockdale, while Andrew Conway and Earls should vye for the other spot on the wing.
Neither scenario favours Trimble, but he edges Bowe here simply due to the fact that his teammate has seemingly made a switch back to the centres, which, in Ireland's situation, is the most stacked it arguably ever has been with Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki and Jared Payne all essentially battling over two positions.
A good headache to have for Joe Schmidt. A harsh reality for Trimble and Bowe.
15. Dave Kearney
Kearney had some real flashes of brilliance in his sole international appearance against Fiji last month.
The Leinster winger scored a try, made a number of good runs off the left wing, and just when things were starting to click for him he threw an intercept that led directly to a Fijian try.
It's been three years since Kearney was a regular fixture for Ireland, and with so much competition in his position, it's hard to see him earning his place regularly at Leinster, nevermind Ireland.
14. Fergus McFadden
McFadden finds himself in a similar predicament to Kearney in that he is surrounded by a wealth of players in his position at both club and international level.
There are essentially nine players fighting for three positions at Leinster this season, and with the likes of Jordan Larmour, Adam Byrne, Barry Daly and Joey Carbery increasingly rising to prominence, and with Rob Kearney and Isa Nacewa still ever-present, something has to give, and whatever it is, it most likely will not fall from the IRFU's pockets.
13. Tiernan O'Halloran
With Simon Zebo set to move to France next season, and with Rob Kearney now on the wrong side of 30 with a decorated injury profile, O'Halloran's stock may rise within the national setup even though his time against meaningful international opposition has been limited thus far.
The Connacht full-back has failed to recapture the form from the province's PRO12 winning campaign, but Kearney, Payne and Carbery aside, O'Halloran should be the next logical choice for Schmidt at full-back.
At 26, he should be entering the prime of his career, and while his Ireland chances may be limited if the aforementioned can maintain form and fitness, O'Halloran is still one of Connacht's best players and will be a high priority for the province heading into the summer.
12. Sean Cronin
Cronin has been one of the most dynamic forwards in the country over the last few seasons but he's facing increasing competition for his spot at both Leinster and Ireland.
Domestically, Cronin has been splitting time at hooker evenly with James Tracy, while at international level, the Limerick born rake faces increasing competition from Tracy, Niall Scannell and Rob Herring to eventually succeed Rory Best.
At 31, Cronin still has a lot to offer Ireland, but with so much competition in his position, and with a time-share scenario emerging at Leinster, Cronin will not be an immediate concern for the IRFU.
11. James Tracy
[See all of #12 Sean Cronin and subtract six years - our #11 - James Tracy].
10. Jared Payne
It's easy to forget that Payne was in fact a British & Irish Lion tourist in the summer.
The versatile New Zealander can cover a number of positions in the backline and has proven to be one of Schmidt's most trusted players, but he has been struggling mightily with persistent headaches and has yet to feature for Ulster this season.
At 32, and with so much competition at centre for Ireland, and across the backline for Ulster, it's hard to see the IRFU dishing out another central contract for Payne, but then again, should he recover and return to form at some point this season, the IRFU won't want to see one of their Lions just walk out the door either.
At this stage, the hand looks to be in the IRFU's favour but we still have to wait for the river and the run.
9. Rob Kearney
His November performances have definitely increased his value to the IRFU but his injury profile is still pretty stark.
The oft-injured full-back has played just 21 games for Leinster and 11 games for Ireland over the last two seasons as he's battled a series of groin, hamstring, knee, ankle, back and just about any other part of the body that is comprised of bone and muscle.
Despite worthy alternatives in the form of Simon Zebo and Joey Carbery, when fit, Kearney is still Joe Schmidt's first-choice full-back and he will most likely hold onto the position heading into the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Whether he can hold onto his central contract is another matter entirely, and will most likely depend on how much gametime he receives between now and the end of the season.
Sometimes the best ability is availability. A point the IRFU will undoubtedly note given that Kearney has played just six games of rugby in as many months.
8. Andrew Conway
When everyone was finished fawning over Jacob Stockdale last month, there was a brief period of time where we could recap and enjoy the performances of Andrew Conway.
The Munster winger was sensational for Ireland against South Africa and Argentina and he is the unofficial poster boy for late bloomers and interprovincial transfers alike.
With Simon Zebo set to leave Munster at the end of the season, Conway will most likely assume a larger role in the backline next season and a similar situation could arise for him with Ireland.
A dark horse for a central contract but a player that is surely worth the consideration.
7. Rhys Ruddock
The most underrated player in the country.
Ruddock has been excellent this season for Leinster, and if it were not for the presence of Peter O'Mahony, the bludgeoning backrower would have a lot more than 18 caps to his name.
A versatile player that can cover any position in the pack outside of the front-row, Ruddock has been a favourite of Schmidt's and captained Ireland during last summer's tour of Japan and the USA.
At 27, he is in the prime of his career, and he's managed to nail down a permanent spot on the blindside of a highly competitive Leinster backrow.
His importance to the IRFU will largely depend on how O'Mahony's contract negotiations unfold, and how he recovers from what appears to be a grade-three hamstring tear, but should he make a full recovery and should the Munster captain leave next season, Ruddock could end up in a much higher position on this list.
6. Rory Best
It's hard to believe that Ireland captain Rory Best would not be in the entirely hypothetical list of the top five players that the IRFU need to re-sign this off-season, but should he want to continue his career past next summer, Best will have to continue to go toe-to-toe with the only undefeated and undisputed champion in professional sport - Father Time.
Best has been a gallant challenger thus far, winning a lot of the early rounds, but at some stage his age will start to show.
He showed no signs of deterioration last month, and he might be able to maintain his high level of performance over the course of the upcoming Six Nations, but he will be 37 by the time the 2019 Rugby World Cup starts.
If he can maintain his current form and stay injury free by that point, he'll enter rarefied, Brad Thorn-esque territory, but assigning contracts is a numbers game and the odds increase in correlation with age. Despite Best's wishes.
5. Garry Ringrose
As good as Ringrose has been over the last three years, it still feels as though the 22-year-old is only scratching the surface of his talent.
At 6'1, 14.5 st, Ringrose has the opportunity to form a long term partnership with Robbie Henshaw in the Leinster and Ireland midfield, and he will probably will if both players can stay injury free.
The Blackrock product is currently working his way back into the provincial fold after a five month lay off following shoulder surgery, but it does not look like the injury will impair him too much going forward.
If a foreign suitor was to bid for Ringrose, the IRFU would want to look at every possible option at keeping him within the Irish system, especially at this tender stage of his development, but fortunately for the union, they may be able to use Ringrose's age against him.
The centre reportedly still lives and commutes from his family home, and a move across to England or France at this stage of his life would be a jarring jolt to his current lifestyle.
As such, the IRFU may be able to get away with not offering him a central contract if they are willing to bank on the fact that Ringrose may have no desire to leave home, and therein, Leinster in the process.
The IRFU were burned on the Donnacha Ryan deal by trying to call his bluff that he wouldn't leave Munster, but with Ringrose, it could be a prudent move on their part even if his talent could warrant a central contract.
4. CJ Stander
As I wrote earlier this week, Stander and O'Mahony should be among the IRFU's top priorities given Munster's pracarious financial position, in which the province still owes over €9.56 million to the union for the loan they received for the redevelopment of Thomond Park.
Stander is one of Munster's most marketable players as well as their most consistent ball carrier.
He has been immense for both club and country throughout his time here, and the only reason he has not made the podium on this list is because of the relative competition he faces.
Should the South African born number eight pursue fonder pastures abroad, Jack O'Donoghue would be in line to replace him at provincial level while Jack Conan could slip right into the frame for Ireland.
At this stage, Stander is the best of the three players, but the depth in his position keeps him off the podium for now.
However, hopefully he is still in the minds of the IRFU as his contract negotiations persist.
3. Iain Henderson
Groomed as a future Ulster, and potentially a future Ireland captain, Henderson has established himself as one of Ulster and Ireland's most valuable assets.
The 25-year-old is entering the prime of his career, and alongside Rory Best, he's the shining light of the Ulster pack.
Jordi Murphy and Marty Moore may be able to add a bit more bite to the Ulster forwards next season, but with Rory Best approaching the finish line of his career, and with the rest of Ulster's second row stocks relatively thin by comparison, it is imperative that the IRFU find a way to keep Henderson in Belfast.
Nationally, with James Ryan, Devin Toner and Ultan Dillane all pushing for places, Ireland can cope with the loss of Henderson, but the same cannot be said for Ulster, from both a playing and a leadership perspective.
2. Tadhg Furlong
It really is splitting hairs between Furlong and O'Mahony for who is more valuable to the union.
Both players are world class. Both players are nailed on starters. Both have future captaincy potential.
I'll get into why I think O'Mahony is a more valuable player further down the page, but for the moment, Furlong is absolutely essential to the union.
He's clearly the best prop in the country. He could be the best player in his position in the world, one of about three Irish players that could legitimately make that claim.
He's likable, he's marketable, he's relatable, especially to those that fall outside the Dublin 4 vortex, and at 25, his best years are most likely still ahead of him.
Thankfully, it looks as though he is set to stay with Leinster and Ireland as SportsJOE reported earlier today.
1. Peter O'Mahony
We might look back on this O'Mahony contract in a few years as the IRFU's litmus test.
This contract will either be retroacively known as the time O'Mahony refused to let his loyalty be used against him in his crusade for wage parity with Jamie Heaslip, or it will be known as the time he left Irish Rugby and publicly lambasted the IRFU for failing to meet him at the table.
You think Reggie Corrigan got the short end of the stick?
Imagine the first interview O'Mahony gives about the IRFU not meeting him in the middle after he publicly stated that he wanted to stay.
And there are plenty of reaosns for him to stay.
Firstly, he's a future Ireland captain. He is the most ready and suitable candidate to succeed Rory Best as captain.
Secondly, he's Munster's captain at a stage where they need him off the pitch as much as they need him on the pitch.
Thirdly, while Rhys Ruddock is consistently gaining ground on him, O'Mahony is still a far better option in the line-out and he's probably the best player in the country over the top of the ball, two valuable traits in a backrow where Sean O'Brien and CJ Stander do the bulk of the carrying.
There's also the fact that there is no immediate replacement for him at Munster, and if the province where to try and find a player of his ilk, they could spend just as much trying to get a player of his quality from choosing Munster instead of England or France.
It is understood that the IRFU currently have 16 players on central contracts; Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Keith Earls at Munster; Cian Healy, Jack McGrath, Devin Toner, Seán O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Johnny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw and Rob Kearney at Leinster; and Rory Best, Tommy Bowe, Iain Henderson, Andrew Trimble and Jared Payne at Ulster. Connacht are understood to have no centrally contracted players.
O'Mahony, Kearney, Best, Bowe, Payne and Henderson are all up for re-negotiation, while Furlong seemingly has, and Stander almost certainly will, move on to central contracts.
Players will move on and off the carousel but their time on the merry-go-round has become more costly in the face of increased competition from England and France.
For the moment, the central contract system still works in the IRFU's favour but for how much longer?
The payoff is still there but the union has to be more selective with their bets than they ever have before.
Hopefully they still have a few aces up their sleeve when the time comes to show their cards.
