It’s the 26th minute of Ireland’s final 2015 Rugby World Cup pool game.
Joe Schmidt’s side are tied level with France at 6-6 but the tide feels as if it’s about to turn with World Rugby Player of the Year nominee Johnny Sexton exiting stage right with an adductor injury.
His tournament is over, even if he has yet to realise it, and he is swiftly replaced by substitute fly-half Ian Madigan who has been brought on to see Ireland home in what is now the biggest game of his career.
Madigan kicks a penalty in the 29th minute, converts Conor Murray’s try and kicks another two penalties to steer Ireland over the finish line and into the tournament’s knockout stages.
He is rewarded for his performance in the quarter-final with a start ahead of Paddy Jackson and it looks as if he has finally emerged as Sexton’s long-term successor at out-half.
However, in the two years since that win, both players have now seemingly dropped out of that race – Madigan, first, with his move to Bordeaux and then Bristol – and Jackson, second, with his ongoing legal issues.
Leinster utility Joey Carbery has emerged as the new frontrunner in a race with no immediate prize but a competition in which every prospective fly-half in Ireland must endure.
But Carbery must also take heed from Madigan’s story. The mercurial utility effectively ended his international career when he decided to defect to the south of France instead of exploring other options to stay in Ireland with one of the other provinces.
But Madigan was 26-years-old when he swapped Belfield for Bordeaux. He had spent his last two seasons at Leinster either deputising behind Johnny Sexton or Jimmy Gopperth, filling in at inside centre or at full-back, or playing as the inside back off the bench.
With Leinster openly circling Robbie Henshaw, Madigan read the writing on the wall just like Cian Kelleher, Dominic Ryan and Jordi Murphy read similar notices thereafter.
Joey Carbery finds himself in a similar predicament albeit at the much younger age of 22-years-old.
If he’s a fly-half, he has Johnny Sexton, and to a lesser degree Ross Byrne, to contend with. If he’s a fly-half masquerading as an inside centre, he’ll have to battle Robbie Henshaw for consistent gametime.
If Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster persist with him at full-back, he’ll have to compete with Rob Kearney and now Jordan Larmour.
Carbery will face considerable competition at any position in the Leinster backline and a player of his potential and caliber needs to be playing against top-tier clubs if he is to develop into the elite international player that he has showed signs of becoming.
With incumbent Ulster fly-half Christian Leali’ifano leaving Ulster at the end of this month, and with Johnny McPhillips and Peter Nelson the province’s only other realistic options at first-receiver, at this point in time, Carbery would quite easily be able to assert himself as the number one out-half at the club if both sides were able to work out a loan agreement until the end of the season.
Ulster Director of Rugby Les Kiss said last month that he would explore the possibility of temporarily bringing in someone like Carbery until the end of the season, but the player himself seemed to pour cold water on the suggestion when speaking to SportsJOE’s The Hard Yards earlier this week.
https://soundcloud.com/thehardyardssportsjoe/ep44-joey-carbery-on-injury-ulster-links-and-jordan-larmour-and-new-years-resolutions
“I haven’t considered it,” says Carbery.
“If someone from Leinster came up and said it to me, then maybe I would consider it. But the chat has only come from the media so I’m not paying too much attention to it, to be honest.”
If you read between the lines it seems as though Carbery has considered the possibility but won’t realistically contemplate moving north unless it’s suggested from a figure within Leinster first. Understandable.
Carbery looks like a more promising prospect than Ian Madigan did at this stage of his career, but there is a distinct possibility that the New Zealand born playmaker may never fulfill his potential if he spends the next few years of his career rotating between three different positions and the bench, ala Ian Madigan.
However, there is also a highly decorated counter-argument against the need to move Carbery at this juncture.
Dan Carter played at inside centre for the first two seasons of his career at the Crusaders before moving to fly-half after Andrew Mehrtens left the club at the end of the 2004 season.
Matt Giteau spent the best part of five years playing outside Wallabies fly-half Stephen Larkham at the Brumbies before eventually moving to fly-half at the Western Force in 2007.
Johnny Sexton had to wait until 2009 to catch his first big break at Leinster when he was able to establish himself as a viable alternative to Felipe Contepomi during the Argentine’s recovery from a cruciate ligament injury.
The three aforementioned players are some of the best fly-halves to have played the game but they all moved to out-half after shadowing great players before them.
Carter and Giteau had both spent significant time at inside centre before moving closer to the ruck later in their careers, while Sexton had to sit patiently behind Contempomi at fly-half while Gordon D’Arcy occupied space at inside centre with Rob Kearney nailing down a spot at full-back.
At 22, what path does Carbery follow?
Does he bide his time off the bench in less meaningful games until a 32-year-old Sexton moves out of the picture? Does he rely on his talent or on injuries elsewhere in the Leinster backline to create an opportunity? Does he look at what happened with Ian Madigan’s development at the club and grow wary of what can potentially happen if you become a victim of your own versatility?
There’s no right answer, but Schmidt, along with every rugby fan, will want to see Carbery play at the highest possible level upon his return from a broken arm.
How that return unfolds over the next year will be a matter of great interest, but for Carbery, it’s a simple choice between learning from the best and biding your time in blue, or waving the white flag in favour of an abundance of opportunity in Belfast, and increased time in the shop window with Ireland.
The Tortoise or the Hare.
