Beaten narrowly in Twickenham by history-chasing England and unconvincing in victory at home to Scotland, the jury is still out on France.
Guy Noves’ appointment has not been the silver bullet that some hoped it would be and French rugby is still a bit of a basket case, with powerful clubs the tail that wags the dog of a Test team.
However, in the likes of Rabah Slimani, Yoann Maestri, Louis Picamoles, Noa Nakaitaci and Gael Fickou they still have the raw talent to confound the critics and wow the neutrals.
Ireland are coming off the back of a nine-try masterclass in Rome that is somewhat cheapened by the paucity of the opposition, but there is still much to build on for Joe Schmidt.
Ireland must win Saturday and in Cardiff Friday week to keep England honest and deliver the St Patrick’s weekend blockbuster that the tournament craves.
Ireland have ensured their place in table quizzes for eternity by earning both the first losing bonus point and first try-scoring bonus point in Six Nations history, but anyone expecting a runaway victory to match Rome would want to consider the recent history of this fixture.
Outside of the deeply impressive 24-9 win at the last World Cup, Ireland have struggled to pull away from the French. They lost in Paris during last year’s misfiring Championship, while the back-to-back wins in 2014 and 2015 came by an aggregate margin of just nine points. Before that we recorded back-to-back draws with Les Bleus.
We are expecting a tight affair and Ladbrokes are offering odds of 9/2 on Ireland winning by between one and five points.
See the market on winning margins here.
He is back, baby.
Johnny Sexton is thankfully, blessedly, hopefully fit. The Leinster and Lions out-half has endured a hellish season in terms of injury, with a calf problem the latest to keep him out of the opening two rounds.
Given his injury profile and importance to Irish rugby, plus Paddy Jackson’s decent performances to date, we can assume Schmidt is not taking a risk and the 31-year-old is fully fit.
His vision, passing ability, willingness to take the ball flat to the line and range of kicking makes him a pivot without peer in European rugby, but he needs a run of games to regain his swagger.
Expect him to take the earliest opportunity to settle any nerves and prove to the doubters that he is fit. That is why, against the frequently penalised French, odds of an Irish penalty as first scoring play are very interesting.
The French have conceded a tournament high 25 penalties in two games to date. Coupled with Sexton’s return and keenness to get on the board, a price of 11/8 on Ireland opening the scoring from the tee are very tempting.
See the market on first scoring play here.
Undoubtedly, Noves is having a positive impact on France since taking over from Philippe Saint-Andre. He and his influential assistant Yannick Bru have stumbled upon a half-back pairing that have taken control of a raggle-taggle bunch.
Clermont’s Camille Lopez and Baptiste Serin of Bordeaux appear to be the duo to both direct and profit from France’s monster pack and set their pacy backs free.
This is a new proposition to recent years and could see the French – poor travellers of late – silence the Aviva by taking a stranglehold on matters.
However, that monster pack is still a concern, and expect France to flag in the latter stages as an incredibly fit and mobile Ireland pull them all around the park.
France to lead at half-time, but Ireland to win over 80 minutes is 10/1.
See the market for half-time/full-time here.
