Better odds than you’d think.
If current form proves true, Ireland and New Zealand should meet each other at the World Cup.
Joe Schmidt’s men could either face the All Blacks in the quarter finals or, if both sides top their groups and make it through the knock-out stages, the final.
Given Ireland’s close calls against the world champions, in June 2012 and November 2013, Stuff asked a couple of Kiwi statisticians to assess their country’s chances of seeing off the boys in green.
Ireland have never beaten New Zealand in their long Test history but, as Brian O’Driscoll remarked a few years back, it will happen eventually.
The boffins, Bill Farrell and Elsa Jordaan from EY, have weighed up history, form, performance levels and talent match-ups and feel Ireland have a decent chance of tipping the apple cart.
They write, ‘History tells us Ireland has a 35% chance of winning against a southern hemisphere team in an “away” game. Based on historical data for New Zealand, the chance of winning an away game against a northern hemisphere team is 73%.’
Farrell and Jordaan note, however, that Ireland are experiencing the most sustained performance peak in their history.
They add, ‘The Irish have a tendency to lose ‘away’ games (65%); however a potential quarter final game in Cardiff, where the Irish have a winning record against the Welsh (five from eight games) will improve Ireland’s chances.
‘Combining the outcomes of the different approaches, we predict a 25-35% chance of an Irish win.’
So there you have it, a one-in-four chance or one-in-three, depending on how optimistic you feel.
You can check out the full statistical analysis here.
