It’s the final round of the Champions Cup Pool stages but it’s also the last chance players will have at impressing their national team coaches ahead of next month’s Six Nations.
Ireland enter this year’s tournament with high expectations following an impressive November series, and while the team should largely remain unchanged from November, injury and competition have raised a number of question marks over selection for the opening game against France in Paris.
Loosehead prop, wing and openside flanker will be the biggest areas of contention for Ireland coach Joe Scmidt given the relative competition in each position as well as a hip injury to Sean O’Brien.
The number one jersey should be a straight shootout between a resurgent Cian Healy and Jack McGrath, while on the wing, Jacob Stockdale, Andrew Conway, Fergus McFadden, Keith Earls and Jordan Larmour should all battle for places.
Meanwhile, at openside, the loss of O’Brien should allow Josh van der Flier and Dan Leavy a shot at competing for the oppotunity to start at openside.
The wing is arguably the biggest area up for debate with Fergus McFadden and Keith Earls both putting huge pressure on Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale to retain their places from the November internationals.
Earls started every game of last year’s Six Nations and had an outstanding game during Munster’s 34-30 loss to Racing at the U Arena last Sunday.
The Munster winger will almost certainly win his place back in the starting XV barring injury, which assumedly makes it a four horse race between Conway, McFadden, Stockdale and Larmour, assuming Schmidt still favours stalwart Rob Kearney at full-back.
Stockdale would have been a near certainty to start given his performances in November, where he was arguably Ireland’s player of the series, but average displays against Connacht and Leinster have somewhat jeoparadised his placing.
Larmour has been the form player in Irish Rugby over the last month and his form certainly warrants a place in the starting side, but Schmidt has generally been reluctant to hand players their debut in the Six Nations, overlooking both Garry Ringrose and Joey Carbery during their respective breakout seasons.
Meanwhile McFadden has been in career best form while Conway had a very strong November and has barely put a foot wrong since returning to Munster.
It’s prompted a selection headache for Schmidt and he will have a couple of dilemmas to mull over this week with Leavy and van der Flier both gunning to start at openside.
van der Flier has played nearly twice as many minutues than Leavy this season, however, the St Michael’s College graduate’s man of the match performance against Munster on Saint Stephen’s Day, as well as his match winning cameo off the bench in the Champions Cup against Exeter, may give Joe Schmidt some food for thought.
van der Flier got the nod to start for Leinster against Glasgow last weekend, but Leavy will start alongside him on the blindside of the scrum against Montpellier on Saturday, giving Schmidt one last chance to assess both players.
van der Flier’s 34 tackles at a 100% completion rate against Connacht on New Year’s Day certainly puts him in a commanding position for selection, and while Schmidt preferred him to Leavy during last year’s Six Nations, Leavy has made tremendous strides in the last year and has certainly made it a tough decision for Schmidt.
A similar situation has also been brewing at loosehead prop with Cian Healy overtaking Jack McGrath at Leinster.
McGrath has started 13 of the last 15 Six Nations games for Ireland but Healy has had somewhat of a renaissance this season and has had his best campaign since his 2013 British & Irish Lions season.
Schmidt has favoured McGrath over the last three seasons, but Healy started in both of Ireland’s November wins over South Africa and Argentina.
McGrath has impressed over the last month during Healy’s three-week suspension for a forearm to the head of Exeter hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie, but a return to the Leinster starting fold may give Healy a final chance to reassert his place in the pecking order after McGrath started in the 55-19 mauling of Glasgow last weekend.
The Ireland team to start France will for the most part stay true to form. Rory Best will start at hooker. Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton will occupy the halves. And come hell or high water, Rob Kearney will almost certainly get the nod at full-back.
But at loosehead prop, openside flanker and wing, Schmidt has some genuine selection dilemmas and this weekend may provide him the answers to some very pertinent questions.
