Joe Schmidt faces big calls at tighthead, outside centre and just what to do with Ultan Dillane.
The fact that we have come to the final Test against the Springboks, in South Africa, debating the best XV to clinch a southern hemisphere series is an achievement in itself.
Ireland have already made history, by beating the Boks in Cape Town, but they are not settling for that. The series should have been bagged in Johannesburg but altitude, tired bodies and South Africa’s bench of bruisers took this contest to a decider in Port Elizabeth.
So close https://t.co/GXBVZwV3va
— SportsJOE (@SportsJOEdotie) June 18, 2016
Attempting to second guess Joe Schmidt is never easy – just look at Josh van der Flier’s Six Nations rollercoaster, Stuart McCloskey’s flash in the pan or the mere sight of Quinn Roux on tour. Looking ahead to this weekend’s Third Test, the starting team would appear obvious.
Jordi Murphy and Keith Earls should come back in at blindside and left wing. Rhys Ruddock and Craig Gilroy can hold their heads up but Murphy and Earls were excellent in the First Test.
CJ Stander will return to the team at blindside with one hell of a point to prove. Harsh as his red card and citing may have been, he was not thinking clearly when poleaxing Pat Lambie.
If Schmidt were the type of man to hold a grudge, he could stick with a 4, 5, 6 of Devin Toner, Quinn Roux and Iain Henderson and let Stander get his redemption off the bench. However, there is a series to be won and Stander is our best blindside option.
Robbie Henshaw will miss Saturday’s game and is set for surgery on his injured knee after picking up cartilage damage at Ellis Park. There are a few options for 13 here – Earls, Luke Marshall and Jared Payne to name but three – but the solution should be clear.
Payne needs to stay at fullback and Marshall has played outside season for most of Ulster’s season. Schmidt is attempting to grow his squad with a view to 2019 so bringing Earls in there would be a retrograde step. Olding remains at 12 with Marshal outside him, as they have often done for their province.
The biggest decision Schmidt has to make is at tighthead. Mike Ross was rested for a reason. Schmidt called it “farcical” to suggest the 36-year-old had been dropped but Tadhg Furlong’s fine outing will make it hard for the senior prop to get back into the front row.
With Ross packing down, in Cape Town, Ireland held their own before leaking penalties. With Furlong in there, South Africa were getting pulped. Furlong should be the one who gets the 50/30 minutes split but Schmidt may go with what he knows. Is there really a point, he may wonder, in bringing his veteran prop off the bench when he needs fresh legs?
That leaves us with Ultan Dillane. In all likelihood, he will return to the Irish bench and be asked to do what he has done in four senior appearances to date – bolt on and careen into the opposition. He should have got a start over here, but all will be forgiven if we take down the Boks.
As for the bench, expect to see Sean Cronin return and for Eoin Reddan and Matt Healy to press for spots. This series could yet come down to the final play and Schmidt will want a mix of stardust and sledgehammers.
SportsJOE’S IRELAND TEAM
15. Jared Payne
14. Andrew Trimble
13. Luke Marshall
12. Stuart Olding
11. Keith Earls
10. Paddy Jackson
9. Conor Murray
1. Jack McGrath
2. Rory Best
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Devin Toner
5. Iain Henderson
6. CJ Stander
7. Jordi Murphy
8. Jamie Heaslip
Replacements:Â Cronin, Bealham, Ross, Dillane, Ruddock, Marmion, Madigan, Healy.
