Even before Sean O’Brien got injured, CJ Stander was crucial to Ireland’s Six Nations hopes. Now that the Tullow Tank is confined to the sidelines, the burden on Stander has considerably increased.
In the 2017 Six Nations, Ireland depended on their back row ball carriers too much. Stander and O’Brien got through an awful lot of work and were flogged for the entire championship.
Stander, once again, posted record numbers while O’Brien started the championship like a train before faltering in Wales and bouncing back to star in the win over England. Much like Ireland’s 2011 World Cup campaign, Wales and Scotland found if they could limit the damage of the back row ball carriers, they could stunt their game-plan.
For much of the Six Nations, Ireland’s back row was Stander and O’Brien with Jamie Heaslip. The Leinster No.8 was often the one that mucked in and allowed Stander some freedom to do damage in the loose. Injury to Heaslip, minutes before the England game, saw Joe Schmidt forced into a tweak. Peter O’Mahony came in at blindside and Stander switched to No.8.
It worked an absolute treat as O’Mahony dogged the English lineout and both Stander and O’Brien flourished in the heat of battle, and with the Munster captain freeing them up.
All three toured with the Lions, with O’Brien the stand-out, and they featured in the wins over South Africa and Argentina. Following that Guinness Series sweep, we wrote:
‘It was heartening to see Stander getting back to his dynamic best but O’Brien is the key figure in this Irish back row. He gets through so much work and is truly feared and respected by opponents. He is a tough, tough man to shift too. Breakdown dominance is crucial in the winning of most matches and this is magnified at Test level.’
The story was headlined – Sean O’Brien is absolutely essential to Ireland winning the Six Nations. We wish we could say, two months on, that is not the case but the Carlow native [out with a hip injury] will be sorely missed.
Where does that leave Ireland heading into the 2018 championship?
In terms of replacing O’Brien, Schmidt has four Leinster options – Jordi Murphy, Jack Conan and the likely lads of Josh van der Flier and Dan Leavy.
A couple of weeks back, when the extent of O’Brien’s injury became apparent, we argued that van der Flier was the best man for the job. He is one of the best young opensides in Europe and gets through a mountain of work at the breakdown and across the pitch.
Looking at the numbers both Leavy [480 minutes played] and van der Flier [893 minutes] have posted for Leinster this season and what they bring to the team is apparent. Van der Flier is averaging 13 tackles and a turnover per match, six carries for nine metres gained. Leavy sticks eight tackles per game, on average, and gains a turnover while he makes more carries [9] and gains more metres [17].
Van der Flier is the man Leinster have turned to as No.7 since O’Brien was injured and, significantly, he has three 80+ minute games since the turn of the year. Schmidt is faced with a big decision and either one will increase the work-load on Stander. With O’Mahony all but assured of the No.6 jersey, Stander will Ireland’s big ball-carrying option.
Our choice would be van der Flier but he is not as dynamic with ball-in-hand than Leavy. O’Mahony and van der Flier will put their hands up for hard carries but in 20 provincial games this season [combined] they have only 2 line breaks between them. Leavy has five clean breaks in 10 games [five starts] and is more attack-minded.
Ireland will look to Stander, then, to proved the impetuous and to get them through gaps and well over the gainline. It is a tough ask but the encouraging part for Schmidt, and Irish fans, is that Stander is back in decent form after shaking off the ankle issue at impinged on his game at the end of last season.
What helps, too, is that Iain Henderson should be in the second row and he is in good form this season. He should take up some of the ball-carrying slack and will hopefully make a few statements as he did in the Guinness Series.
Ideally, Ireland could have drafted in Scarlets’ second row dynamo Tadhg Beirne for the championship – with Henderson calling the lineouts and O’Mahony keeping up his excellent form at the set-piece. That could have given the team another ground-hog and allowed them to get someone like Leavy into the back row.
As it stands, van der Flier and Devin Toner are the likely starters in Paris. Those selections are perfect for the arm-wrestle but Ireland should be aiming to go at this inexperienced French team and take the game away from them.
