The beauty of sport is that everyone has an opinion.
The ugly side of sportswriting is that your opinion can be decimated by a single game.
On Friday, I wrote on this site that ‘Wales is Joe Schmidt’s biggest test but an exam that he has failed for years‘. Good idea that.
The premise of my article was that Schmidt had just two wins from six against Wales, which represented the equal worst win percentage against any Tier One nation during his tenure as Ireland coach.
I highlighted the fact that Ireland had not won against Wales since 2014. That Warren Gatland’s side had exposed their lack of creativity during their last two trips to Cardiff.
I looked at the fact that Ireland were averaging just one try per game in the Six Nations – against teams that weren’t Italy – since the start of last year’s tournament.
Over the last few weeks I’ve highlighted, along with many others, that Ireland didn’t have a single linebreak against France in the opening round, despite Jacques Brunel’s side setting a Six Nations record for most tackles made in a single game.
Then there were factors that pertained to this year’s Welsh game in particular.
There was the return of the Lions trio of Liam Williams, Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny for Wales. There was the loss of Robbie Henshaw and Tadhg Furlong for Ireland. There was the fact that Wales had thrashed Gregor Townsend’s Scotland 34-7 on the opening day, and if it wasn’t for an all-time howler from the TMO at Twickenham a fortnight ago, Gatland’s side could have defeated England, the two-time defending champions.
Maybe they were salient points heading into Saturday’s game, maybe I was reading too much into the build up, but when you write a piece about how a coach has been failing against a particular side for the last five years, and then that coach’s side comes out and put 37 points and five tries on the board against that very side you’ve said he’s struggled against, needless to say, you can look like a bit of a tit.
With Schmidt now boasting three wins from seven games against Wales as Ireland coach, and three consecutive wins from this year’s tournament, the answer is I was wrong, but the next question for Schmidt is ‘where to from here?’
At this stage of his coaching career, there are only two more peaks that the New Zealander has yet to reach as a coach in Europe; a Grand Slam and a Rugby World Cup. He should target both.
If Ireland can defeat Scotland in two weeks time, and should France pull off an upset win against England at home, Schmidt will have secured his third Six Nations title in five years, but he will still need to win at Twickenham on St. Patrick’s Day to obtain Ireland’s first Grand Slam since 2009.
Is the Grand Slam a reasonable goal for Schmidt and Ireland at this stage or is Scotland’s resurgence and the prospect of winning at Twickenham, where Ireland have not won since 2010, still too tall of a task?
There’s arguments for both cases but the reality is the global rugby landscape has changed over the course of this decade.
Australia and South Africa are both shadows of their former selves. France have not been a consistent force since 2011. Argentina have improved but are still no closer to being considered among the very best.
Scotland are once again a legitimate Test side, after nearly two decades of mediocrity, but they still need to show that their revival can be sustained over a number of years, and while Wales seemingly always turn it on in the Six Nations, their form over the summer tours and November internationals keeps them at a comfortable distance from the very top of the mountain.
Traditionally, the international rugby podium firmly belonged to New Zealand, South Africa and Australia, but with the decline of both the Wallabies and the Springboks over the last two years, and with the strength of Ireland and England both buoyed by strong club setups, both nations should be in a position to perenially challenge for silver, if not New Zealand’s gold on their day.
The 2015 Rugby World Cup represented the All Blacks at their apex under Steve Hansen, while for Schmidt, it was his darkest hour as an Ireland coach.
The 43-20 defeat to Argentina in the quarter-final was the lowest ebb of his international coaching career, which was compounded by the fact that not only was Argentina a side that Ireland boasted five consecutive wins over heading into that game, but had Ireland won in Cardiff, Australia or Scotland would have awaited them in the semi-finals, two sides that they had the better of in the years preceding that tournament.
Old scars do not need to be reopened, but the reality is, since that dreadful afternoon in Cardiff, Ireland have posted wins over both New Zealand and England while they also ran the two-time defending world champions very close in Dublin in 2016.
Ireland have shown that they can beat any side in world rugby when they are playing at their best, but the key for Schmidt is eliminating losses like the 2015 defeats to Wales and Argentina, the 2016 loss to France and the 2017 defeats to Scotland and Wales.
Ireland looked sensational at times against Wales on Saturday. They made a number of rudimentary errors and turned the ball over too many times in the opposition 22, but the numbers were undeniably impressive – 454 metres gained, 69% possession, 37 points, five tries and just four penalties conceded against a Welsh side that had trounced Scotland and should have beaten England. By any measure, and in the face of any criticism concerning style, that is incredible.
Opinions will vary surrounding Joe Schmidt’s Ireland. ‘They don’t play a lot of rugby’. ‘They play too narrow’. ‘They’re predictable’.
But the facts are that the goalposts have moved for this team. Ireland are no longer the dark horse but often now among the contenders.
Press Conference: Joe Schmidt & @RoryBest2 on Ireland's 5 try win #TeamOfUs #NatWest6Nations #IREvWAL pic.twitter.com/w106Y4zT81
— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) February 24, 2018
It’s a tag that doesn’t sit comfortably with Schmidt, and while he said in his post-match interview after the Wales win that he can’t entertain the thought of a Grand Slam yet, the reality is is that’s what we’re expecting.
Excellence heightens expectation. Among fans. Among pundits. Among former players. People with opinions that await validation.
