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2nd October 2023
04:15pm BST
"If Scotland beat Ireland 8-0, Ireland are out. That's how I see it. I was thinking about that a lot last night. "The other permutation, which is the interesting one, is when all three of us are on 15 points. Then the team with the best (points difference) first of all goes through. If Scotland's points difference points is the best, then Scotland will go through and we will fall out as Ireland beat us. First it goes to points difference, then for the second team it is who beat who. "For that to happen Scotland must score four tries and beat Ireland by more than 20 points and Ireland must get one bonus point somehow. There are three or four very interesting permutations. But if I was Scotland I'd just want to beat them by eight points and not even score a try. "If I was Ireland I'd definitely make sure they beat them. If Ireland finish first on points difference then we go through as we beat Scotland."
"The score could be 22-12 or 22-13 and Ireland are out of the competition if they don't get a bonus point. Of the three teams we are probably the most comfortable sitting here knowing we have got a two week rest. Look, maybe we have got six months rest if the cards don't fall our way. "We have got two weeks off where we can analyse all three teams that we can possibly play. I always thought the Ireland Scotland game was going to be nervy, just like the France-Italy game will be nervy. I know everybody writes off Italy and though Italy are not used to playing against southern hemisphere teams they are used to playing against northern hemisphere teams. There are going to be some interesting permutations still in the rest of this World Cup."According to Rugbypass, though, there is one high-scoring "nightmare scenario" that would knock South Africa out of the World Cup. 'If Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points or more with a four-try bonus,' writes Ian Cameron, 'and Ireland get a four-try bonus point in defeat, then South Africa will be knocked out of the Rugby World Cup.' What should comfort Ireland and South Africa fans, though, is the fact that Andy Farrell's side are on an eight-match winning streak against Scotland. Should Johnny Sexton start, on Saturday, that streak gets even longer. Sexton has beaten the Scots on his last 12 matches against them, and has not lost to them since a World Cup warm-up at Murrayfield, in August 2011. The form guide and statistics are in favour of Ireland, but Scotland insist this is 'a straight shoot-out' with the World No.1, in Paris.
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