Does experimentation in international rugby lead to success at a Rugby World Cup?
Can a country benefit from trialing as many players as possible in a World Cup cycle to get a better sense of their own strengths and weaknesses? Or is a country better served building continuity within their squad and strengthening chemistry through repetition?
England won a World Cup in 2003 on the back of a Grandslam success in that year’s Six Nations, while Ireland famously crashed out in the Pool stages in 2007 despite losing that year’s Six Nations on points difference.
New Zealand, who only won two out of four games in the 2011 Tri-Nations, went onto win the 2011 Rugby World Cup two months later with their fourth choice fly-half, while three players in the final against France had made their international debut in 2010.
Experience does not necessarily translate to World Cup success. At the 2015 Rugby World Cup, Tadhg Furlong, Darren Cave, Sean Cronin, Donnacha Ryan and Isaac Boss served as nothing more than cannon fodder for Joe Schmidt.
Furlong had only made his international debut less than a month before the tournament after a strong season with Leinster, while Cronin and Ryan were seasoned internationals by that stage, yet between the three of them in the games that really counted, Cronin received 10 minutes off the bench against Italy, Ryan received just nine minutes off the bench against Argentina in the quarter-final, while not one of the aforementioned featured in the Pool stage finale against France.
Ireland didn’t lose against Argentina in 2015 because guys like Dave Kearney and Chris Henry didn’t have enough experience before the tournament, Ireland lost because they had guys like Dave Kearney and Chris Henry starting in the quarter-final of a World Cup.
That’s not being disrespectful to Kearney and Henry, it’s just that the gap between those players and 2014 IRUPA Player of the Year Andrew Trimble and Sean O’Brien at the time was wide.
In 2018, at openside flanker and wing especially, Ireland have narrowed the gulf between starter and replacement with Jordi Murphy, Josh van der Flier and Dan Leavy all battling to deputise for O’Brien, while on the wing, a player like Kearney is nowhere near the squad, with Andrew Conway, Jacob Stockdale, Keith Earls, Jordan Larmour and Fergus McFadden are all battling for two positions.
There is still a noticeable gap between starter and deputy at scrum-half, tighthead prop and fly-half, but for the most part, Ireland’s depth has improved considerably since the 2015 World Cup.
Ireland have more depth than they have arguably ever had before, and the idea that they need to use the Six Nations to blood in new players is not entirely necessary, given that Ireland will play Australia in a three-test series in the summer, three to four tests in November, two of which could be played against New Zealand, the entire 2019 Six Nations, and potentially four pre-World Cup warm up matches as well as Pool matches against Japan, the winner of Europe 1 and a Play-off Winner.
Ireland’s only competitive match before the knockout stages should theoretically come against Scotland. That leaves potentially 14 non-consequential/Tier 2 games for Schmidt to experiment with.
Given that Ireland have not won a Six Nations championship since 2015, and have won only five out of 10 games over the last two championships, there shouldn’t be any room for experimentation this year.
If a player like Jordan Larmour should make his debut over the next two months, it should be on merit, and not on a basis that Ireland should throw him out there for experience when there’s 14 non-consequential/Tier 2 games outside of the next two Six Nations championships.
Ireland are in good stead for the Six Nations and the 2019 Rugby World Cup, but experience can only play so much of a factor, even in a Joe Schmidt led side.
If Ireland ever want to win a World Cup, they may not necessarily need to beat New Zealand in order to lift the William Webb Ellis Cup, but they will ultimately need a squad as deep as what the All Blacks have currently.
To win a World Cup, you need to get to a level where you can exclude a player like Simon Zebo, no matter how weak the reasoning may be, and still thrive, similar to how the All Blacks have performed in the last two seasons without the likes of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Tony Woodcock and even Julian Savea at times.
Ireland’s issue has historically never been a lack of experience, it’s been a lack of depth, a weakness that was brutally exposed at both the 2007 and 2015 Rugby World Cups.
Ireland have redressed this issue over the last few years with a better production line, with the likes of Leavy, van der Flier, Joey Carbery, Andrew Porter, James Ryan, Jacob Stockdale, Andrew Conway, Garry Ringrose, James Tracy, Luke McGrath, Chris Farrell and Bundee Aki all debuting for Ireland since the 2016 November internationals.
New Zealand thumped South Africa 57-0 with a back three of Damian McKenzie, Rieko Ioane and Nehe Milner Skudder, who had a combined 21 caps between them at the time, and yet, ran in three of eight tries.
They started one-cap Jordie Barrett, two-cap Ioane and debutant Ngani Laumape in a Lions series, a tour that was billed as the biggest series of games to come to New Zealand in 12 years.
Ireland aren’t New Zealand, and they don’t have to necessarily defeat the All Blacks to win a World Cup, but if anything Steve Hansen has shown throughout his tenure as New Zealand boss, it’s that talent triumphs over experience.
Ireland have a lot of players who could do with more experience, but they have probably never had a group with as much talent.
