It is still all to play for.
Ireland are the only team in the hunt for the Grand Slam in this year’s Six Nations following their wins over England and Scotland.
Of course, the Slam is what they are after, but a third Championship in a row would still be a historic achievement.
Ahead of the pivotal game against France, we have taken a look at the permutations should Ireland fail to win that match at the Aviva Stadium on March 8.
You can also take a look at the current table here.
Assumptions
Ireland will beat both Italy and Wales with a bonus point. Given results and form, it would be a big surprise for Ireland not to achieve this.
France will beat both Italy and Scotland with a bonus point.
England will beat Scotland, Italy, and Wales with a bonus point.
France
With France being the most likely to win the Championship after Ireland, let’s have a look at the permutations should they beat Ireland at the Aviva Stadium.
Considering the assumptions above, France would finish the tournament with at least 20 points.
In one scenario they beat Ireland with a bonus point, giving them 21 points, which is the maximum they can get.
Two bonus points in the game for Ireland – a try and losing bonus – gives Ireland 22 points the end of the Championship, thus handing them the trophy.
France are not afraid to play an open game, and as we saw with England, they will give up opportunities. If Ireland can be more clinical in the red zone, two bonus points are a very real possibility.
If Ireland only get one bonus point, they will finish level on points with the French.
Home advantage at the Aviva Stadium cannot be understated here, and it will be very tough for a travelling Les Bleus to defeat an in-form Ireland by more than seven points.
This scenario highlights the importance of Ireland’s next game against Wales, and why two late English tries in week one could be costly.
It would see the Championship go down to points difference and, if England are still in the mix, set up the best finish since 2015’s Super Sunday, when Ireland beat Scotland 40-10 on the final day for a +6 points difference over England.
France are currently on a +42 points difference, with Ireland on +19.
Les Bleus will be hurting from their loss to England, they know their best route to glory is through points difference, and they have the team to rack up big scores.
As well, they play Scotland at home in the last game of the Championship and will know exactly what they have to do.
With a seven-point win over Ireland in this scenario, they could put 30 on Italy and 20 on Scotland, giving them a +99 points difference.
Take away seven points from Ireland, this would leave them needing to be Wales and Italy by a combined total of 87 points.
It’s an unlikely scenario, but given Wales’ struggles, Ireland will see it as a possibility.
Either way, a big score is required at the Millenium Stadium, forcing France to not only beat Ireland, but to hammer both Italy and Scotland.
And if it was not obvious, should France beat Ireland without bonus points, but allow their opponents one, they will finish below Ireland.
England
The England permutations are a little easier, given that Ireland have already beaten them.
With the above assumptions, England will finish on 21 points.
However, given their current points difference of -4, they will need Ireland to deny France a try bonus point.
And if Ireland can put a big score on Wales, England will also need France to deny Ireland a bonus point. This would give England the trophy outright and is their most likely route to glory.
A win against Scotland, let alone one with a bonus point, is also far from a foregone conclusion.
Scotland
The Scots can finish on 20 points with bonus point wins over England, France, and Wales.
Given their points difference of -2, they would need Wales or Italy to deny Ireland a try bonus point, and win the tournament outright.
Most likely scenarios
- Ireland beat France and take home the Grand Slam
- Ireland deny France a bonus point win, pick up one themselves, and win the Championship outright
- France beat Ireland and finish level on points, but with a superior points difference
- The above scenario but Ireland finish with the superior points difference
