The All Blacks have been reading the Lions like a book all tour.
Steve Hansen predicted, long before the Lions Tour began, that Warren Gatland would attempt to influence referees through the media. He also called the Lions’ late additions, three days before they were actually confirmed.
In the First Test, the Kiwis knew they could gas out the tourists by keeping the ball in play for long stretches and exhausting them through phase-play. They also spotted a weakness with quick-tap penalties and gunned for George Kruis and Alun Wyn Jones in the defensive line.
Two days out from Warren Gatland naming his team for the Second Test against New Zealand, Jerome Kaino already had a good idea of the changes Gatland would make.
“I don’t think they lose anything having Sam [Warburton] in there,” said Kaino. “We are expecting a huge lift of intensity at the breakdown if they bring Sam in. If anything, they get stronger having him there.”
As for All Blacks assistant coach Ian Foster, he expects them ‘to come out strong’ in terms of physicality. The hosts expect Maro Itoje to also come into the starting team, as do we. Courtney Lawes is also tipped to come into the matchday squad but Kruis could retain his spot.
If Warburton, Itoje and Lawes are the squad changes, it will play right into New Zealand’s hands. [*The squad will be named at 1:30am Thursday morning, Irish time]
PREDICTED LIONS XV
Williams; Watson, Davies, Te’o, Daly; Farrell, Murray.
Vunipola, George, Furlong; Itoje, Kruis; Warburton (c), O’Brien, Faletau.
There has been talk – mostly in Wales – of Leigh Halfpenny coming in at fullback too, with Elliot Daly benched and Liam Williams on the left wing. The main motivation for that call would be handing Halfpenny the kicking tee [Farrell’s missed conversion from O’Brien’s try last week left it 13-8 at the break].
The All Blacks will care very little about how they get the job done at the Cake Tin this weekend. A one-point victory, as dirty or lucky as they come, will do nicely.
The AB’s front five were awesome against the Lions and their back row weren’t too shabby at all. Aside from bossing the scrum, winning countless collisions and slowing down Lions ruck ball, they also shut down the rolling maul threat and were incredible in attack.
CARRYING STATS [1st TEST]
Lions forwards: 77 metres gained off 43 carries. 1 clean break and 1 defender beaten [both from Sean O’Brien]
New Zealand forwards: 184 metres gained off 73 carries. 5 clean breaks and 6 defenders beaten.
The Lions changes are going away from what worked for them in weekend wins over the Crusaders and the Maori. They are coming about to negate the All Blacks strengths rather than focusing on their own.
They did the most damage to New Zealand by running hard, smart angles, good support lines and clearing out rucks with intent. Unfortunately for them, it did not happen enough and too few players can look back upon that game with much satisfaction. At times, though, they looked dangerously close to irresistible.
Sean O'Brien finishes off a cracker!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/q1oaEFIe3e
— Pat McCarry (@patmccarry) June 24, 2017
There are few complaints with taking Alun Wyn Jones out of the fray as he has not been at his best on tour. Iain Henderson’s presence would be welcome – fantastic carrying threat and clever in attack – but he is expected to miss out.
The Warburton for O’Mahony call is replacing a guy who has two great performances and a middling one with a tour captain searching for form, four weeks into a six-week tour. Again, it is not Warburton’s attacking qualities that have been highlighted – it is the fact that he can slow New Zealand down.
If O’Mahony drops from the starting team he could well drop from the entire squad and with him goes the lineout advantage that kept the Lions in the contest for so long at Eden Park.
This series was 12 years in the making and the Lions are going into a must-win game with a don’t-lose strategy that failed them in 2005.
That is why Johnny Sexton, Jonathan Joseph and CJ Stander will miss out on the starting XV.
Everybody is an expert about how to beat the All Blacks. So few have done it but everyone has an opinion about it… even us.
It is just a shame that the Lions are going into Saturday’s game trying to bring on trench warfare when that is exactly what New Zealand want.
