“You want it to be one way… but it’s the other way.”
Ireland have longed for it to be one way for well over a century. But, for well over a century, it has been the other way.
Brave. Narrow. Shocking. Huge. Tight. Comprehensive. Jammy. Resounding. Whatever way you look at those 28 defeats, they have been defeats.
There has only been one draw. There have been about six close calls. There have been no wins.
So what are we looking at for Saturday’s Test at Soldier Field [3pm kick-off, 8pm Irish time]? Ireland have played eight times since their World Cup quarter final exit. They have three wins, a draw and four losses.
New Zealand are on an 18-match winning streak that includes eight on the spin this year, a World Cup, Bledisloe Cup and Rugby Championship success.
The question I have been asked, over and over, since arriving in Chicago is ‘So, do Ireland have a chance?’ My response:
“We have… a chance. I’d give them a 10% chance of winning.”
All things considered, that’s not bad going but perhaps I am selling this Irish team short.
The All Blacks have a bundle of world-class talents but there are chinks in their armour. Their second row is a completely untried combination [albeit featuring Jerome Kaino] and Liam Squire will be targeted by the likes of Jamie Heaslip and Jordi Murphy.
Ryan Crotty and George Moala are good but they’re no Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith. Not by a long shot.
Joe Schmidt has his players primed for a 90-minute match. They delivered 78 fantastic minutes in 2013 and it was nearly enough. This time around, they need to go faster and harder for even longer.
Argentina looked set for one hell of a shock during The Rugby Championship but ran out of puff – out of everything – after 45 minutes and were filleted. Ireland are fitter and fresher and the Kiwis are coming to the end of a 10-month season.
It is no surprise, then, that Schmidt is going for fresh faces on the bench and guys that can make an impact off the bench. An hour into the contest, Ireland will hopefully be within touching distance and will be able to call on Healy, Cronin, Bealham and Dillane – all strong carries that make serious dents.
And then we have the bright young hopes. The shakes of the dice. Kieran Marmion, Joey Carbery and Garry Ringrose. We’re praying they can bring their provincial magic to the Test stage.
A glance at the All Blacks bench prevents one from getting too carried away – Ardie Savea, Cruden, Perenara and Fekitoa are all sensational, attacking gems.
What gives us hope, though, is a result we have almost taken for granted this year.
In Cape Town, with 14 men for over an hour, Ireland beat a pretty decent South Africa side in an away match for the first time in their history. It was one of the greatest away performances of any Irish side in their international history.
They have to exceed those levels to get by New Zealand but they have a chance.
Fight like apes, dig deep, go harder and go longer
There is hope.
“You want it to be one way… ”
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