Italy always come out all guns blazing when they’re at home in the Six Nations.
In their last home opener they beat France in 2013, ran Ireland right up until the final minute two years before that, and they’ve been close on their opening home games against England in 2010 and 2012.
I’m expecting a huge performance from them, and considering they’re in our group for the World Cup in a few months, there’s plenty at stake, aside from the two match points.
Joe Schmidt has had a number of close calls to make in his selection for the game, the biggest of which came at out-half.
When you break it down from his point of view, Keatley has been playing 10 regularly for the last couple of seasons, while Madigan has drifted around the backline.
Schmidt is all about preparation, and when you haven’t been playing regularly in that position, you won’t be sufficient when it comes time to make the step up to test level.
Had things gone better against the Wolfhounds, Schmidt may have had faith in Madigan, but when Keatley has been performing in that position week-in week-out for Munster, linking up with Conor Murray in the process, it’s a sensible position to keep the pair together.
When you look at his displays against Sale in October and away to Clermont in December, he’s proven he can handle the pressure in tight games, and deserves his chance in a green jersey.
Sean O’Brien’s return is huge, and going by his 50 minutes in Cork last week, it’s as if he was never gone.
He’s had such a long layoff, and with Cian Healy and Jamie Heaslip out of action, it’s great that we have a proven ball carrier back in the team. I’m also really looking forward to seeing Jordi Murphy in action this Saturday.
Schmidt could have moved Peter O’Mahony over to 8, but instead he went with a straight swap for Jordi coming in for Heaslip, probably to reduce the amount of players switching position around the side.
Like he does with every player, Joe will be well aware of his capabilities at the back of the scrum, and with a young player making a start in a position he’s unfamiliar with, he’ll be giving him clear instructions of how to approach the game.
As champions, Ireland need to play like that this weekend.
They need to go down with the attitude of a side that are assured in themselves, and if there’s any complacency in them, Italy are a side well capable of knocking it out of them. I do think Ireland will win though.
If they can do well up front and bring the back three of Kearney, Zebo and Bowe into the game regularly, they’ll be able to exploit gaps in the defence.
Avoiding an arm-wrestle is key, but I do expect Ireland to open their title defence with a win.
Wales and France to open with wins
As a player, I never liked playing with the roof closed at the Millennium Stadium. It was great for the fans, but it always reminded me of playing at altitude. Oxygen is scarce and heavy, and you can get a smell of stale fags and beer running in and out of the tunnel.
All the debate about the roof has been a sideshow for the game of the weekend though, and I think Wales will just about edge it. There’s hardly anything between the teams.
The Welsh have lots of big name test players with great experience in the competition, while England have been so consistent in the last few years; they have a four out of five record in each of the last four years.
I can see Wales pinching this one, but I can see it going right down to the wire.
In Paris, France have been more miss than hit in the last few championships, but I think they’ll do enough to start with a win.
There’s a lot for Scottish fans to be optimistic about this season. Their club sides are doing well, Vern Cotter is a big name in charge, and they looked good during November. If they are to push on under Cotter, they need to improve how they use the ball, rather than increase the amount of ball they get.
