Can the Irish repeat the magic of last year’s event and pull off a clean sweep at UFC Dublin?
If there was one downside to the UFC’s extraordinary return to Irish shores in 2014 it was that it was too perfect.
From Cathal Pendred’s stunning come-from-behind submission victory against a juiced-up Mike King to Conor McGregor delivering on his promise and almost knocking Diego Brandao’s head clean off, UFC Fight Night 46 made us feel like the Irish contingent in the promotion were invincible.
After seeing Pendred, Paddy Holohan, Norman Parke, honorary Irishman Gunnar Nelson, Aisling Daly, Neil Seery and Paul Redmond all drop losses inside the Octagon since the event, we know that this is not the case.
To give everyone a more reasonable expectation of the event, we’ve taken a look at how the Irish fighters are expected to fare based on the fool-proof “if they fought ten times” rule. At the very least, if there is a clean sweep. this will make it that much more spectacular.
Cathal Pendred v Tom Breese
What’s on the line: Pendred will more than likely still be a UFC fighter regardless of the outcome of this fight. Sure, his fighting style isn’t pretty, but you have to give him credit for his ability to grind out a victory. The Punisher is 4-1 in the UFC and his only loss came by way of split decision to John Howard at UFC 189.
While he doesn’t have a lot to lose from this fight, he does have a lot to gain.There was a lot of hype surrounding the former Cage Warriors champion before he signed for the promotion, but his performances have so far failed to live up to it. Had he shone in all of his UFC victories, they might have called upon him to fill the co-main slot for this card when the Rothwell v Miocic fight was scrapped.
A good victory here against a very exciting prospect will undoubtedly see him improve his status among the fighting Irish and may even secure him a main card slot for his next fight.
Opponent: Tom Breese is an absolute murderer. The undefeated British fighter (8-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has never heard the final bell in his professional career.
The 24-year old has two knockouts and six submission victories and was already had a great overall game before joining murderers’ row at the renowned Tri-Star gym in Montreal. The scary thing is, he has only improved since going under the tutelage of Firas Zahabi.
Chance of victory: Pendred is going to have to tap into that patented grit and toughness in order to steal a win in this fight as it’s difficult to see any area where he stacks up favourably against the rising welterweight. The Dubliner won’t be able to bully him with his wrestling like he’s done in previous fights because Breese is so strong and has such a large frame for a 170 lber. 2/10.
Aisling Daly v Ericka Almeida
What’s on the line: Daly, like Pendred, has it all to gain and not much to lose. The fact that the UFC strawweight division is still quite young means anyone can land a big fight by stringing a couple of wins together.
Her 2-1 UFC record means she has job security and while a win probably won’t see her get a crack at Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s belt, it might secure her a bout with a bigger name fighter such as Felice Herrig, Jessica Aguilar or even Joanne Calderwood.
Opponent:Â Ericka Almeida (7-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is a submission specialist with all her victories coming by way of first round finish. However, she proved in her promotional debut that she lacks the wrestling prowess to really contend on the big stage, losing a unanimous decision to Juliana Lima.
Chance of victory: Daly’s up for this. After missing out on the card last year, she looks really fired up to fight in her hometown. If she can avoid the Brazilian’s early onslaught, she should be able to grind her way to victory. 7/10.
Neil Seery v Jon Delos Reyes
What’s on the line: Seery’s under a little bit of pressure here. He’s 2-2 in the UFC (15-11 MMA) and comes into this one off the back of a unanimous decision loss to co-headliner Louis Smolka. The fact that he’s 36 means that he’s more susceptible to getting the axe from the cold UFC big wigs who tend to give kids like Paige VanZant and Sage ManZant all the breaks. However, his incapability of being in a boring fight would surely work in his favour.
Opponent:Â Jon Delos Reyes (8-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC) doesn’t like going the distance. It has only happened to him once in his career and he lost that bout via unanimous decision. Reyes is like Seery in that he enjoys a scrap, meaning that once again 2 Tap is in a fight of the night candidate.
Chance of victory: You could call Seery a tricky veteran, but that would perhaps undersell his desire to finish. If he’s not going head-hunting with his heavy hands, he’s in pursuit of a submission. Seery’s more well-rounded and his elite level scrambling should see him avoid any submission attempts. 8/10.
Norman Parke v Reza Madadi
What’s on the line: This time last year, Parke (20-4-1 MMA, 5-2-1 UFC) was riding an 11-fight unbeaten streak. Now he’s staring down the barrel of a third straight loss in the UFC, which could potentially see him exit the promotion.
Although, both losses were split decisions against top Brazilian lightweights Gleison Tibau and Francisco Trinaldo (the latter being extremely dodgy), they still show up on his record as two defeats and fighters rarely go 0-3 and live to tell the tale.
Opponent: The last time we saw Reza Madadi inside a cage, he was choking out top 155er Michael Johnson. However, that was over two and a half years ago.
Madadi (13-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC) was recently released from jail after serving a 14-month jail sentence for aggravated burglary in Sweden for his involvement in a designer handbag store robbery in which $150,000 worth of goods were stolen.
The Iranian fighter looked superb before his time in the slammer, but no one is really sure what to expect of him after such an extended time away from the sport. There is a chance that he will have fallen behind the new progressions and techniques in the sport, especially considering he is the ripe old age of 37.
However, I’m always reminded of that scene in The Fighter where Mickey Ward is expecting an easy fight against an ex-con who was “just off the coach” and he ended up getting his face caved in.
Chance of victory: There’s too much uncertainty to come down on any side here. Parke is tactically very sound and regardless of which kind of Madadi shows up, he’ll make a fight of it. 5/10.
Paddy Holohan v Louis Smolka
What’s on the line: Holohan (12-1-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has this drive that only top athletes have to constantly improve and continue progressing in his sport. He’s going to keep looking for the big fights and if he continues on this path he will break into the top 15. He’ll see this fight as another step in his never-ending journey to reach the zenith of the sport.
Opponent: We all know Louis Smolka (9-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) from that grappling masterclass he put on during his close-fought decision victory over Seery. He’s roughly the same height, has a similar record and has pretty much the same skill-set as the Hooligan.
Chance of victory: This is a real toss-up, because both fighters are so similar. Smolka is a little less wild on the ground, but that’s what makes Holohan such a threat on the mat.
The impassioned Irish support might sway it in favour of the Hooligan but remember, Smolka defeated Richie Vaculik in the lion’s den at UFC Fight Night 55. He’s well able to play the villain. However, I see Holohan drawing his energy from the crowd which should give him the boost he needs in such a close fight. 6/10.
Joseph Duffy v Dustin Poirier
What’s on the line: Momentum. Duffy (14-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is being built up to be Ireland’s next big UFC superstar and from looking at his performances in the Octagon, it’s easy to see why.
A win against ranked lightweight Poirier might be enough to sneak him into the top 15. From there we’ll see him matched up against better opposition that would put him in a position of being able to ascend the rankings, get more main card slots and eventually work his way towards a title shot.
Opponent: Anyone who’s followed Conor McGregor’s UFC tenure will know all about Dustin Poirier (18-4). While the Diamond’s featherweight career ended with that brutal first round knockout at the hands of McGregor, he looks like a completely different animal at 155 lb.
The easier weight cut has resulted in his speed being dramatically increased. He’s got great stand-up (9 KOs), he’s great on the ground (6 SUBs) and he’s not bad at grappling either.
Chance of victory: Even though it’s universally accepted that Poirier is extremely well-rounded, Duffy just seems to have the edge in most areas.
As Dan Hardy correctly pointed out in his breakdown, Poirier’s tendency to rush in and swing for the fences like a long-lost Diaz brother does open up his body to strikes, which is something an elite boxer like Duffy will happily exploit.
However, you can never count a fighter as dangerous as Poirier out. This is in no way a sure-thing. 7/10.
