Jose Aldo is an underdog this weekend and that’s impossible to understand.
People say that hype and popularity don’t affect the betting markets but I simply don’t believe that because, to me, all signs point towards yet another Aldo victory when the octagon door slams shut on Saturday night – however Conor McGregor remains firm favourite.
Not here he is not!
Aldo has been the reigning champion since the formation of the UFC’s featherweight division in 2010.
And while McGregor has been busy making a name for himself by finishing almost all comers in the UFC, the quality of those comers pales in comparison to Aldo’s competition over the years.
While Aldo has been dominating Chad Mendes, Frankie Edgar, Ricardo Lamas and Kenny Florian, Conor McGregor has been facing Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier, Dennis Siver and Marcus Brimage.
People will raise the argument that McGregor also fought Mendes but the Mendes who arrived in the octagon at UFC 189 was, at most, half as prepared as the Mendes who lost to Aldo at UFC 179.
This is just too soon for The Notorious and it’s hard to shake the feeling that he’s rushed himself into the title shot.
A fight against a Frankie Edgar or a fully fit Chad Mendes prior to a championship bout would have paid dividends as he would have gotten the experience of being in there with a truly elite 145 lber.
Having kept track of both fighters’ final preparations, I’m unconvinced by the whole “freedom of movement” work he has been doing with Ido Portal.
McGregor claims that he’s revolutionising the game with his work on human motion but I’m of the philosophy that training in fight scenarios is the best way to approach real fight scenarios.
McGregor has claimed that Aldo would have been better off facing him at UFC 189 because the last five months have only allowed the Irishman’s game to improve.
I disagree.
Those five months were perfect for Aldo to distance himself from the mind games, and the lack of a world tour this time around means that the Brazilian is less emotionally invested in destroying a shit-talker and more focused on beating just another challenger.
He’s essentially had two fight camps back-to-back, preparing for the same opponent and Aldo also didn’t have to go through the draining stages of the weight cut that McGregor did in July.
Plus, while McGregor was coaching on The Ultimate Fighter, Aldo was still back in Rio de Janeiro. Still working. Still training. Still focusing on one opponent.
The video below examines the technical details in depth but, sufficed to say, I firmly believe that Aldo is superior to McGregor everywhere, bar power-punching.
I think Aldo is the more technical kickboxer, is much more disciplined defensively and has a wealth of knowledge in grappling that means he has a backup plan if he happens to find himself on the losing end of a striking war.
In a karate contest or Capoeira exhibition, McGregor’s flashy techniques may come out on top but I simply think Aldo is the more complete fighter.
The five-round element is also huge and the fact that Aldo has seen out the championship rounds in five of his seven UFC bouts means that he will have the muscle memory to grind out the final tough minutes.
If the bout goes past the third round, McGregor will be in unfamiliar territory and could well struggle to find that extra gear.
For my prediction of this fight, I’m not going on the trash talk or guesswork.
I’m going off of what’s been proven.
I’ve seen Aldo fight and beat the best of the best at 145 lbs while I’ve not seen McGregor do that yet.
Until I do, I’m picking what I know. And I know that Aldo is the best featherweight fighter of all time.
Read the case for Conor McGregor here.
