A strong contender for the most “I guess I’ll watch it if it’s on” card of the year.
There’s not a whole lot to be decided in terms of title pictures with any fight on tonight’s card but, hey, it could should be Dan Henderson’s last fight so we’ll tune in for that at least.
Our MMA writers’ records thus far look like this:
Bourbon Ben Kiely: 73-44
Darragh The Quizmaster Murphy: 72-45
Tim Boetsch (18-8) v Dan Henderson (30-13)
BK: If this fight had happened five years ago, Hendo would have unquestionably been the favourite. However, the last few years have not been kind to the MMA legend.
War after war inside the Octagon has seen him slow down considerably and has resulted in his iron chin become noticeably weaker.
He still has that crafty wrestling, and that patented H-Bomb, but he eats a lot of punches. Boetsch should give him plenty to feast on and, if he maintains focus, should take home the victory. Boetsch via decision
DM: Dan Henderson has made us too sad over the last four years to get any real enjoyment out of his fights anymore.
He’s undoubtedly one of the biggest legends to ever wrap his hands but retiring in 2012 would have been the smart decision.
His striking has slowed significantly, his explosiveness has all but disappeared and, to be honest, the only two ways that he wins this fight is pulling a Homer Simpson by using his ridiculous chin to tire Tim Boetsch out or landing the patented H-Bomb.
Five years ago, I’d have been plumping for Hendo all day long but I don’t think he has the tools to beat a Boetsch who hasn’t yet been slowed down by his age. Tim Boetsch via decision.
https://youtu.be/KOfyn1HnraY
Ben Rothwell (34-9) v Matt Mitrione (9-3)
BK: When you’ve got two heavy hitters slugging it out like this, anything can happen.
Both fighters are coming into this one off the back of knockout victories over relatively big names in the division and either could thrust themselves into the title frame with a win in New Orleans.
Mitrione said during the week that there’s not many people in the world that can beat him. Although I think Ben Rothwell possesses the skills to do just that, I think Fat Chris Pratt’s superior athleticism should be enough to get him the win. He needs to watch out for that haymaker though. Mitrione via TKO (round 1)
DM: This is probably the only fight on the card that I’m actually looking forward to seeing.
I’ve got a feeling that the supremely athletic Matt Mitrione is setting himself up for a delicious title shot in the near future.
He’s made a handy habit of first round finishes over the last year, seeing off Shawn Jordan, Derrick Lewis and Gabriel Gonzaga in a combined 7:39.
I don’t think that he’s going to absolutely steamroll Rothwell because he’s a genuine beast but I’m anticipating a second round finish. Matt Mitrione via TKO (round 2)
Dustin Poirier (17-4) v Yancy Medeiros (11-2, 1NC)
BK: There’s nothing Medeiros does well, that Poirier can’t do better. He also has a stark advantage in the cardio department. The longer this fight goes on, the greater the likelihood that Poirier will emerge victorious. Poirier via submission (Round 3)
DM: Everything here points to Dustin Poirier for me.
Firstly Medeiros missed weight which would suggest that he had a rough cut.
But the main deciding factor in this fight is the difference in levels of opponents faced.
In the past five years, Poirier has only lost to elite level guys like Chan Sung Jung, Cub Swanson and Conor McGregor while Medeiros has fallen to Jim Miller and Rustam Khabilov.
At lightweight, Poirier looks much better than he did when he was killing himself to make 145lbs and he’s quite simply the more well-rounded fighter. Poirier via submission (round 1)
https://youtu.be/a-67e9Vk8gc
Thiago Tavares (19-5-1) v Brian Ortega (8-0, 1NC)
BK: One could argue that the number of fights Tavares has had against top level opponents will work against his favour. However, I think the experience he gained from fighting the likes of Khabib, Stout and Lentz cshould be invaluable against a young whipper-snapper like Ortega.
Ortega is full of potential, but he’s still quite raw. He could learn a lot from losing to someone like Tavares, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Tavares via decision
DM: I think this one is going to be decided by Ortega’s naivety.
T-City is a top, top grappler in most promotions but among the elite in the UFC’s featherweight division, he’s decidedly average. Probably worse than Tavares to be honest.
I expect him to come out and clinch with Tavares and look to dominate the jiu-jitsu realm but will be shocked (and choked) by the Brazilian’s prowess on the mat. Thiago Tavares via submission (round 2)
Joe Soto (15-3) v Anthony Birchak (11-2)
BK: There’s no doubt over who’s the better fighter here. Soto has the edge over Birchak in nearly every aspect of the sport.
However, the better fighter doesn’t always win. If Birchak can use his craftiness to suck Soto into a fight that doesn’t suit him, he could frustrate the (for one-night only) former bantamweight contender. Soto is probably too well-rounded, experienced and intelligent to let that happen though. Soto via decision
DM: Anthony Birchak 100% has the power and reckless striking to catch Soto but world title fights tend to bring fighters up a level and I anticipate just that to have happened in Soto’s admirable showing against TJ Dillashaw in August.
Soto never really looked like he had the potential to upset the bantamweight champion but he made a good account of himself and kept himself in the fight at all times.
He ought to be the superior boxer in terms of technique and is almost certainly the better wrestler so all signs point to Soto getting back in the win column. Soto via decision
Francisco Rivera (10-4, 1NC) v Alex Caceres (10-7, 1NC)
BK: Bruce Leeroy has the advantage on the ground, but I back Rivera’s takedown defence and scrambling ability to keep this fight standing.
Caceres can be wild and careless at times, which should provide Rivera ample opportunity to drop some hurtin’ bombs and call this contest to a halt.
Rivera via TKO (round 2)
DM: This fight will likely be as close in reality as it is to the oddsmakers with both bantamweights fluctuating between slight favourite and slight underdog.
If a knockout’s happening, it’s definitely coming from Rivera who has far more power in his hands than Caceres but I give the technique advantage to Bruce Leeroy.
Caceres should also enjoy the edge on the ground and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him pull guard if he’s starting to get lit up by Cisco.
A very tricky fight to call considering both guys are coming off a pair of losses but Caceres’ slick ground game does enough for me to get him the finish. Caceres via submission (round 2)
https://youtu.be/KZtZBZwBWwE
