In 2015, seven new UFC champions were crowned. Could 2016 spring something similar?
The first event of the year gives the opportunity for welterweight veteran Carlos Condit to start that trend as he takes on the heavy-handed, resurgent Robbie Lawler in the main event of UFC 195.
The next heavyweight challenger could also be decided from the co-main event with Stipe Miocic meeting Andrei Arlovski.
And Donegal’s own Joe Duffy gets his biggest name yet as he takes on ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier to close out the Fight Pass prelims.
At the end of 2015, here’s what our MMA writers’ records looked like.
Bourbon Ben Kiely: 152-87
Darragh The Quizmaster Murphy: 148-91
And we’re starting afresh in 2016 at 0-0 apiece.
Robbie Lawler (26-10-1NC) v Carlos Condit (30-8)
BK: Lawler is the archetypal wild card of what I consider to be the toughest division in all of MMA. Pick against him at your own detriment, because he’s more than likely going be shocked into life by the pain, go full beast mode and unleash a devastating flurry.
I’e said it time and time again, the worst thing you can do against the champion is be winning the fight on points. Just ask Rory MacDonald.
However, this is Condit’s last chance at winning a belt, and under the guidance of Greg Jackson, who managed to get the most out of Holly Holm and get her to usurp Ronda Rousey, I think this might be seeing the best possible version of the Natural Born Killer. I think he’s going to stay on the outside and outpoint Ruthless, much like he did to defeat Nick Diaz back at UFC 143. Condit via Greg Jackson’s tactical genius
DM: While Greg Jackson will be the deciding factor if Condit does cut Robbie Lawler’s reign short, I just don’t have enough confidence in ‘The Natural Born Killer’ at this stage in his career to pick him.
In his last five fights, he went 2-3 and those two wins were against past-their-best fighters in Martin Kampmann and Thiago Alves.
In that same time, Lawler has beaten Rory MacDonald twice, Matt Brown and Johny Hendricks so we just like the form of the champion over Condit’s.
Condit will want to stay more technical than the power-punching Lawler but I think the technique of ‘Ruthless’ is often underrated and the way he sets up his power left hand is very difficult to gauge.
Condit will win rounds but I just see Lawler having more on the feet than his opponent and having the takedown defence to avoid Condit’s submission proficiency. Lawler via razor-close decision
Stipe Miocic (13-2) v Andre Arlovski (25-10-1NC)
BK: This will be brains v brawn as Arlovski is the more powerful puncher, but Miocic easily has the greater fighter IQ.
Every time Miocic fights he seems to have added another string to his bow. Event the brawl he (barely) lost to Junior dos Santos seems to have shaped him into a better fighter.
Although both fighters are arguably at the peaks right now, I believe Miocic’s ceiling is higher and we probably won’t see his best until he’s fighting for that belt. Miocic by decision
DM: I love Stipe Miocic in this fight and if it goes past the first round then I would essentially give no chance to Andre Arlovski.
The Belarusian will be dangerous for the first minute but, in all likelihood, Miocic’s tactical acumen and systematic striking will easily pick Arlovski apart on the feet.
I wouldn’t reduce Arlovski’s hopes to a mere puncher’s chance but I just think he’s too wild and Miocic is too smart for this to sway Arlovski’s way. Miocic by decision
Lorenz Larkin (16-4-1NC) v Albert Tumenov (16-2)
BK: Larkin has looked immense since dropping down to welterweight and I think he’ll have the speed advantage here, but Tumenov is just that little bit crisper on the feet.
When you’ve got two heavy hitters like this though, it could all come down to who lands big first. Tumenov via TKO (round two)
DM: I’m a little bit torn on this one because both guys have looked nasty in the last twelve months but you know the old saying – “when in doubt, go for the Russian guy.”
Tumenov adores an ol’ head kick and punches TKO and I just think he’s going to get his combinations off quicker than Larkin who’s more used to life at middleweight.
I’ll be far from shocked if Larkin can pull out a win inside the distance with his flashy striking but I just have a feeling that Tumenov can get it done. Tumenov via TKO (round one)
Diego Brandao (20-10) v Brian Ortega (9-0-1NC)
BK: The longer this fight goes on, the greater the chance that Ortega will get his hand raised. Brandao is a gifted athlete and possesses some devastating power, but his mental strength and cardio is highly suspect.
Ortega seems to be constantly improving as a fighter and I feel he has the Brazilian’s number in this one if he can make it out of the first round unscathed. Ortega by decision
DM: I foresee very little cerebrality here. I think both guys will meet in the centre of the octagon and unload.
And if that’s the case then I just think Brandao has much more finishing power than his American opponent. Ortega will want to drag Brandao to the mat as he’s a massive threat on the mat but Brandao’s no slouch on the ground either.
I can see this being over within one minute with Brandao coming out on top. Brandao via KO (round one)
Abel Trujillo (12-7-1NC) v Tony Simms (12-3)
BK: Precision beats power nine times out of ten.
Simms via KO (round three)
DM: This is a massive step-up in competition for Tony Simms who is 1-1 in the UFC.
Simms’ chin has yet to really be tested and I expect Trujillo to do just that and I predict that that test will end in only one way – with Simms being awoken from an early slumber. Trujillo via KO (round one)
Dustin Poirier (18-4) v Joseph Duffy (14-1)
BK: Joseph Duffy was a great fighter before the UFC. Then he went to train at Murderers’ Row in Tri-Star under the tuteleage of Firas Zahabi and now he appears to be world class.
Stand up, ground game, wrestling, he’s got it all. McGregor’s an incredibly special athlete, but Duffy might just be the most well-rounded MMA fighter this small island has ever produced.
I expect him to dismantle Poirier. Duffy via submission (round two)
DM: Don’t be at all surprised to see the hype train derailing because Dustin Poirier is a beast but I have a sneaking suspicion that Joe Duffy will be able to get through this significant challenge with flying colours.
Many will say that a ranked opponent right now is too soon for the Donegal lightweight but it’s hard to find a chink in Duffy’s armour, in all honesty.
He’s got some of the best Jiu-Jitsu at 155 lbs and the striking game that he honed as a professional boxer means that there are no real areas in which he’s going to struggle
Working with Firas Zahabi, Duffy’s gameplan will be nothing short of perfect and this should be 3-0 for him in the UFC. Duffy via submission (round two)
