There are three kinds of lies according to the adage made famous by Mark Twain and they’re “lies, damned lies and statistics.”
But Twain never struck us as much of a fight fan and we reckon the best way to break down the success of mixed martial artists is with the use of statistics.
The numbers are hard to ignore and Conor McGregor’s meteoric rise to the top of the UFC’s featherweight division is best summed up by looking at the cold, hard figures.
The Notorious has spent just over half an hour of fight time inside the octagon which translates to just 2,329 seconds of action, resulting in five knockouts.
By contrast, Jose Aldo has spent almost four times that amount fighting under the UFC banner as he has, to date, 8,819 seconds of fight time in the octagon (more than two hours in total).
So, despite having just one more fight than McGregor in the UFC, Aldo has much more octagon time under his belt.
FightMetric gathered the data of active UFC featherweights who had at least five fights with the promotion and the results show that McGregor is currently in first place in the rankings of shortest average fight time with an average duration of 6:28 while Aldo is the leader, not just among featherweights, in terms of longest average fight times at 21:00.
Aldo also enjoyed an experience advantage in the fighters’ respective careers prior to their UFC debuts.
The Brazilian entered the world’s biggest MMA promotion with an impressive pro record of 18-1 compared to the 12-2 that McGregor was boasting.
But how do the fighters match up in terms of finishing ability?
Statistically, McGregor has been more stoppage-focused throughout his career with only one of the Dubliner’s fights going to the judges while Aldo has gone the distance nine times since his 2004 debut.
When you look at the percentage of how the pair have gotten their hands raised, McGregor’s 95% finishing rate goes some way to explaining why he’s being touted as one of the most exciting fighters in global MMA.
Meanwhile, Aldo has gotten rather fond of the judges’ scorecards in recent years and has seen his finishing rate drop to 64%.
With the build-up to the biggest fight in featherweight history reaching fever pitch, much has been spoken about the reach advantage enjoyed by Conor McGregor and how well he uses his long limbs to keep shorter fighters on the outside.
The Notorious stands at 5′ 9″ which is two inches taller than the 145lb champion but the significant reach discrepancy is even more remarkable as McGregor will have four inches in his favour against Aldo.
But being statisticians for the day, we’re going to attempt to avoid looking at hypothetical elements like whether or not Aldo can get inside McGregor’s lengthy striking.
Rather, we’re going to look at how well various techniques have served the pair in their UFC careers.
First, let’s examine how McGregor and Aldo have fared in terms of accuracy of significant strikes.
In McGregor’s six fights with the UFC, he has thrown 477 significant strikes and landed 211 of them which gives him an accuracy of 44%.
By comparison, Aldo’s seven fights with the promotion have seen him attempt 1,081 significant strikes, 428 of which found their target resulting in a success rate of 41%.
Both men are two of the best strikers on the entire UFC roster thanks to their proclivity for mixing up strikes to the head, body and legs.
In McGregor’s five fights with the UFC, he’s been adamant about pursuing the knockout at all costs and that’s clear to see judging by the targets of his significant strikes landed. He’s found a home for his head strikes 79% of the time, the body 15% of the time and has neglected the leg strikes a little with just 6% of his attacks landing below the waist.
Jose Aldo has some of the best leg kicks in modern MMA and is much more fond of that technique than the man he will face on December 12.
His search for the knockout may have waned in recent fights but his strikes to the legs of his opponent are as good as it gets in the UFC. Here’s how the targets of his successful significant strikes break down in his seven-fight UFC tenure.
Many have claimed that Aldo’s best gameplan to counteract the unorthodox striking of McGregor would be to take the Irishman to the ground.
How does the takedown proficiency of both fighters match up?
McGregor has attempted six takedowns since his 2013 move to the UFC, most of which came against Max Holloway, and has completed all but one of them.
The vast majority of his defensive grappling came in the Chad Mendes fight. Mendes took him down four times out of seven attempts.
Aldo, meanwhile, has been far more active in pursuit of the shot but his success rate is less than that of his Dublin counterpart with 12 successful takedowns out of 17 attempted.
The Brazilian has some of the best defensive wrestling in the featherweight division and he’s fought off 47 of the 54 attempts to get him to the mat.
Let’s say Aldo is able to take McGregor to the mat. What’s the likeliest outcome from there? Will the BJJ black belt look for a submission or will he be content to land ground and pound from a dominant position?
We took a look at both guys’ activity on the ground in their UFC careers and their respective submission attempts, passes and sweeps look like this.
So there you have it. Maths can be fun eh?
