We can’t remember a fighter being a 1/18 favourite too often in title fights but Ronda Rousey is quite deserving of those odds.
It’s a battle of undefeated women’s bantamweights in the headliner of UFC 190 and most fans who intend to stay up for the duration of the Rio event are hoping that challenger Bethe Correia has a cast on standby cageside.
With a seven fight main card (that’s right, seven), there is plenty to look forward to on Saturday night including Brazilian legends Shogun Rua and the Nogueira brothers as well as a heavyweight battle for the ages between Bigfoot Silva and Soa Palelei.
Our MMA writers’ thus far look like this
Darragh The Quizmaster Murphy: 99-64
Bourbon Ben Kiely: 97-66
Ronda Rousey (11-0) v Bethe Correia (9-0)
DM: Rousey by armbar (first round). Nothing more to say.
BK: This could be a more one-sided fight than complex carbohydrates vs Matt Serra. Rousey via armbar (round one)
Mauricio Rua (22-10) v Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6)
DM: Now on to an actual contest. I think that Shogun in his prime beats Lil’ Nog in his prime nine times out of ten but there’s not a whole lot of prime to be had at UFC 190, over ten years since the pair first met.
Rua’s been battered from pillar to post and Nogueira hasn’t fought in about 15 years so nostalgic fight fans might be left wishing that both fighters had never taken this fight by the end of the co-main event.
I think that Nogueira, if 100% healthy, can actually take this one because Rua left his chin back in 2012. Lil’ Nog possesses the more technical boxing and better ground game. He may have to weather an early Shogun storm but I don’t see any way that Rua gets the W if this goes past the first three minutes. Nogueira via decision
BK: Rua is only a shade of the fighter he used to be. The amount of brutal wars he’s been in seems to have really taken its toll on Shogun.
Nogueira’s lack of activity that horrific knockout at the heavy hands of Anthony Johnson is also a concern, but I think if he’s fully fit he can take this. Nogueira via TKO (round two)
Glaico Franca (13-3) v Fernando Bruno (16-2)
DM: Good luck to those last minute researches looking for a crash course in these two fighters, as well as Vieira and Lopes below, because not one of the four TUF Brazil 4 finalists have a Wikipedia page to their name.
The lightweight final will undoubtedly be a frenetic grappling battle between two submission specialists in Franca and Bruno.
Franca is more aggressive on the ground so, if the fight ends up there, it could be trouble for Acougeiro but I think Bruno holds the advantage on the feet. So with a stand-up edge and the ability to keep Franca at bay on the mat, I’m leaning towards a Bruno win. Bruno via decision
BK: To be brutally honest, I didn’t watch TUF Brazil 4. Presumably most people reading this are in the same boat. So, I used the fool-proof method of flipping a coin. Franca by decision
Reginaldo Vieira (13-3) v Dileno Lopes (19-1)
DM: For those who didn’t watch TUF Brazil 4, Dileno Lopes is an absolute beast and will cause some sleepless nights for UFC bantamweights.
Vieira took advantage of a Giovanni Santos withdrawal to get a second chance at glory but I don’t think he possesses any of the tools to derail Lopes’ freight train ride into the UFC.
On the feet/on the ground, Lopes can take this one anywhere. Lopes via submission (round 1)
BK: See answer for previous fight. Lopes via submission (round one)
Stefan Struve (29-7) v Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9, 1NC)
DM: It will break my tiny little heart if Big Nog gets beaten badly here and I sort of subscribe to the theory that he should have retired after the Nelson fight but Brazil does special things for the heavyweight legend.
He was getting beaten convincingly by Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 but dug deep and knocked the TUF 10 vet out before the first round ended.
It’s not the logical choice but, hey, I don’t have money on it so I’m picking with my heart. Nogueira via ugly decision
BK: Shove your nostalgia where the sun don’t shine. Struve’s chin is highly suspect and Nogueira can take advantage of this weakness if he works his way inside, but I think he’s just too slow to make it happen. The leaning towering of Struve has got the reach and I expect he’ll full utlise it to put the Brazilian away early. Struve via KO (round one)
Antonio Silva (18-7, 1NC) v Soa Palelei (22-4)
DM: The judges can confidently go take a short break for this one because there’s slim to no chance that this goes to the scorecards.
Bigfoot has seen better days as he’s not had his hand raised in over two and a half years but I just think his experience advantage comes into play here.
Silva has beaten arguably the greatest of all time in Fedor Emelianenko as well as Muay Thai phenom Alistair Overeem in his time so I think he has the tools to beat The Hulk. If he’s getting tagged on the feet then he should have the wherewithal to drag Palelei to the ground where he will have a significant edge. Silva via TKO (round 1)
BK: I think Palelei has more visible holes in his game than Silva. However, when you swing as hard as he does against an opponent with a chin as deteriorated as Silva’s, you always have a chance.
If Silva can make it out of the first stanza with his head still affixed to his neck, then the momentum should swing in his favour as Palelei tends to fade. Silva via TKO (round two)
Claudia Gadelha (12-1) v Jessica Aguilar (19-4)
DM: This fight, in my opinion, deserves to be higher up the card because it’s actually the only non-title fight that will have any implications on its weight class.
Gadelha should get a title shot with a win and, having barely been beaten by current strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk, she will be confident of her chances.
Aguilar is a talented WSOF veteran and has some of the best Jitz in the 115 lb division but I think Gadelha has the potential to be the strawweight answer to Miesha Tate, a fighter who will always be floating around the top of her weight class. Gadelha via decision
BK: Aguilar was considered to be the best strawweight fighter in the world for a very long time. However, since she hasn’t fought on the big stage, there is some uncertainty over whether she can hang with the big girls.
Gadelha ran the current baddest 115 lber on the planet pretty damn close. So whoever wins this one will earn the next crack at the belt, but I’m siding with the fighter who’s done it on the biggest stage. Gadelha by decision
