UFC 182 promises to be an outstanding card, but who are the horses to back and who are the losers we should take around the back of the stables and shoot in the back of the head?
Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier
The harsh reality of this fight is that there is no safe bet. With both of these athletes at the zenith of the sport, literally anything could happen. However, when you look at their prior fights you can make some educated guesses.
Two of Cormier’s four fights in the UFC have gone to decision and he got an extremely late finish against Dan Henderson in his last trip to the Octagon. If Cormier’s going to be competitive in this one, you would like to think it’s going to go the distance. Likewise Jones’ last two bouts have lasted the full 25-minutes.
Safer option: Over 4.5 rounds @4/7 + fight to go to decision @13/8
Alternatively, you could argue that such is Jon Jones dominance in the division that he will storm home to victory. Also, the fact that he harbours such hatred of Cormier will only spur him on more to get the finish.
Long shot: Under 4.5 rounds @ 6/5 + no decision @ 6/5 + Jones victory @ 4/7
Donald Cerrone v Myles Jury
My word, this is another tough fight to call. You’ve got a veteran knockout artist in Donald Cerrone who’s riding a five-fight winning streak up against a gifted, young hot-shot in Myles Jury who has never lost a bout. When you’ve got two great strikers coming up against each other, it’s easy to say that the fight won’t last long. However, this duo get knocked out so rarely (never in Jury’s case) that it is unfair to say even that much.
Cerrone will enter this as the favourite due to his stellar performances in 2014. Cowboy won all four of his bouts inside the Octagon this year. If he wins, it will likely be a spectacular KO, which might happen against a raw-looking Jury.
Safer option: Under 1.5 rounds @ 11/5 + Cerrone victory @ 10/23
On the other hand, Jury is still unbeaten and looks likes a future contender in the division. A win here would see him lose the “future” prefix and thrust him right into the title frame. Stranger things have happened to far less talented fighters.
Long shot: Over 2.5 rounds @ 8/15 + Jury victory @ 7/4
Brad Tavares v Nate Marquardt
Surprise, surprise! This fight is another close one to call. Tavares is coming into this fight off back-to-back losses and therefore will be under immense pressure to win and keep his job. Marqaurdt looked fantastic in his middleweight return but that was against a poor James Te Huna. Tavares should provide a much tougher test.
Marquardt possesses both knockout power and a strong submission game which will make him a slight favourite over the Hawaiian.
Safer option: Under 2.5 rounds @ 8/11 + Marquardt victory @ 8/11
If you fancy taking a slight risk for a bigger reward, there is a chance the grinder could come up trumps and get the decision victory.
Long shot: Over 2.5 rounds @ Evens + decision @ 11/10 + Tavares victory @ 11/10
Kyoji Horiguchi v Louis Gaudinot
Finally, a bout that’s relatively easy to call. (Famous last words) Horiguchi is in tremendous form and he has yet to taste defeat inside the Octagon. He also has a penchant for finishing fights which is no mean feat for the midget… eh I mean flyweight division. Horiguchi should put Gaudinot away at some stage during the fight.
Safer option: Horiguchi victory @ 1/8
However, you can’t deny Gaudinot’s heart, and when a fighter shows heart they always have a fighting chance. The green-haired goon is no slouch either. He holds a victory over heavy handed John Lineker. If you don’t trust my predictions, perhaps a flutter on the underdog is the bet for you.
Long shot: Gaudinot victory @ 19/4
Hector Lombard v Josh Burkman
Seemingly nobody in the division wants to fight Lombard, and for good reason too. The man is a monster. Expect him to emerge as a contender after a dominant victory at UFC 182. If you have to make just one bet on the card, I’d suggest backing the reliable Lombard.
Safer option: Lombard victory @ 1/7
Burkman had an abysmal tme in his first stint in the UFC, finishing with a 5-5 record. However, he has drastically improved since then and even fought for the WSOF belt last year, albeit losing to Steve Carl. Who knows, maybe he could pull a Boetsch or an Okami and grind out a controversial split decision? He won’t but he might.
Long shot: Burkman victory at 9/2
All odds are correct at the time of writing according to Ladbrokes.
