Even after three stunning performances in the UFC, Seery finds himself as the underdog yet again.
Dubliner Neil Seery squares off against highly-touted flyweight Louis Smolka at UFC 189.
Seery enters into this bout after handing young whippersnapper Chris Beal his first professional loss, whereas Smolka scored a crazy step-in side-kick knockout against Richie Vaculik in his last trip to the Octagon.
Both have identical records in the UFC (2-1) and are on the cusp of breaking into the top 15. As a result, Vegas are predicting a close battle but are giving Smolka the slight edge at -113 to Seery’s odds of -107.
However, fight fans seem to be a little bit more confident that the Hawaiian will be victorious judging by a poll on the UFC’s official website.
A whopping 76% have predicted that the former Cage Warriors champion will lose to Smolka in Vegas. Just like against Beal and Brad Pickett, Seery has found himself to be the heavy underdog in the eyes of the fans.
So why is it that the overwhelming majority seem to continuously underestimate Seery, when he continues to prove them wrong inside the Octagon? Well, there are a few factors that could be at play here.
Record
Seery’s 15-10 record is very deceptive. While 10 losses appears to be an awful return for a professional fighter, a lot of those fights were in divisions higher than his natural weight. This can be attributed to the fact that a flyweight division had yet to be established early in his career.
His 8-2 record in his last 10 fights is a far more telling statistic of where he is right now.
Even his UFC record is a bit misleading.
He fought Pickett in his promotional debut on extremely short notice. At the time Pickett was a huge favourite and on course for a title shot. Not only did Seery last the entire fight but he dominated the British fighter on the feet over three rounds, leading many to believe that he could have defeated One Punch if he had a proper training camp for the fight.
Still, Smolka’s 8-1 record simply looks better on paper than Seery’s 8-1, and that may have influenced the fans’ predictions.
Age
Given the option between a youthful hot prospect and a veteran who’s just arrived at the big time, most casual fans are going to side with the young gun. It’s human nature to want to see a promising youngster ascend through the ranks and work his way into the title contention.
There is a perception of longevity in 23-year-old Smolka’s career whereas Seery, 35, is less likely to be around as long as “Da Last Samurai”. However, this favouritism for younger, rawer fighters over the experienced auld lads doesn’t always work out.
We saw what happened to Beal in his first fight after dropping down to “get an easier route to a title shot”. Seery’s experience mixed with his unrelenting work-rate saw him completely dominate The Real Deal to take home the decision.
Marketing
In an ideal world, a fighter could rely on his ability in order to rise to prominence, but as we all know, this is not the case.
One thing that has become glaringly obvious from the build up to UFC 189 is that fans love storylines, drama, controversy and all these things that occur outside the Octagon. After all, it was Nick Diaz’s antics outside of the cage that had so many people genuinely convinced he was, at one stage, the best welterweight in the world.
Although he has sparred with Smolka on social media, Seery isn’t the type of fighter to talk trash about his opponent in order to generate hype. As such, he probably isn’t as well-known in the promotion as his proficiency in fighting might warrant.
All this doubt over being able to see off Smolka only leaves Seery poised to continue the trend of upsetting the odds. If the Dubliner can score his third consecutive victory in a bout that has Fight of the Night candidate written all over it, one would hope a bout against a ranked opponent is on the cards next.
