Remember last month when Paige VanZant was dominated by Rose Namajunas, a few weeks after Ronda Rousey was dethroned as bantamweight champion?
All of a sudden, the UFC brass saw their two biggest female stars drop down a tier in terms of marketability.
And if Conor McGregor had been beaten by Jose Aldo at UFC 194, the promotion would have seen the head cut off yet another of their invaluable cash cows.
But McGregor beat Aldo (we imagine you’ve heard) and the new year started with some serious considerations to be made.
Picture a poker player prudently stroking his chin, wondering whether it was worth it to go all in, and you’ve got a pretty solid image of the UFC’s position in recent weeks.
Do they make Conor McGregor fight as often as possible in 2016 to maximise potential revenue? They could but they risk burn-out and, in this sport, all it takes is one misjudgement to send all momentum out of the octagon quicker than Keith Hackney under the weight of Emmanuel Yarborough.
So then came the reports – now confirmed – on January 8 that the next fights in both the lightweight and women’s bantamweight division had been set.
Conor McGregor is getting his wish in moving up to 155 lbs for a super fight with lightweight kingpin Rafael dos Anjos and Holly Holm will be fighting Miesha Tate, not former champion Ronda Rousey, at UFC 197 on March 5.
And they’re fantastic fights. I have no qualms with either and am just as excited about this as I was for UFC 189 and UFC 194.
But they’re a massive risk for the promotion to take which, in one sense, has to be applauded but, in another, has me nervously biting my lip at what it does for the remaining 2016 events.
Contrary to popular (recent) opinion, there is no such thing as an unbeatable fighter and Conor McGregor is no exception to that rule.
In UFC 197, McGregor comes up against a pressure fighter who is the same size as ‘The Notorious’ and, with the performances that RDA has displayed since June 2014, there is no guarantee that McGregor leaves Las Vegas with two titles in tow.
Let’s say the Irishman is beaten. What does that leave for him?
Sure, he can come back and defend his featherweight title against Frankie Edgar at UFC 200 in July but the air of invincibility that he has exuded since bursting onto the UFC scene will have dissipated.
Similarly, what happens if Holm loses to Tate at UFC 197? It’s far from unimaginable!
In fact, an argument can be made that Tate is a tougher fight for the reigning bantamweight champion than Rousey was due to the fact that ‘Cupcake’ has better stand-up than Rousey and her entry to takedowns is far less telegraphed than those of the former champion.
If that does happen then is Tate v Rousey III all that interesting to anybody? Doubtful, particularly in an event of the magnitude of UFC 200. And a Tate v Holm rematch would be even less appealing, let’s be honest.
What I’m trying to say is that the UFC is risking the drawing power of two of their biggest potential fights by booking the key fighters against legitimately dangerous opponents before the biggest event in UFC history.
In monetary terms, that UFC unbeaten record of fighters in feature bouts, as well as intriguing narratives, is vital to pay-per-view buys and, by the looks of it, UFC 200 is set to shatter the promotion’s previous record of 1.65 million which was set at UFC 100.
In all reality, that July card should break right through the 2 million barrier but that is a little bit dependent on how McGregor and Holm do at UFC 197.
If McGregor loses to RDA and Holm loses to Tate, then are you really as excited as you should be for McGregor v Edgar and Tate v Rousey/Holm in July?
If you answered yes then you’re, quite simply, a liar.
I understand that the UFC, to some point, has to allow its fighters to fight often if they wish to do so but the promotion should also realise that they must protect their investments in certain scenarios.
If, and it is a bigger if than many believe, McGregor and Holm do come through the rumoured UFC 197 challenge then, perfect. It looks like a masterstroke from the UFC and UFC 200 is even bigger, possibly even stretching its pay-per-view buys to a downright insane 2.5 million.
But as we’ve learned in the past 12 months, certainties are few and far between in the fight game and we think the promotion should have realised the historic card that they have on the table in July, realised that records were there to be smashed and caressed the delicately ideal situation that they’re currently in.
It could all change on March 5 but, for the sake of building excitement, we hope it doesn’t!
*Updated from piece first published on January 8.
